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S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on July 9?
Financials
polymarket
kalshi

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on July 9?

Volume:
$237,791
PredictionHero
7,535 or above 100%
kalshi
7,540 or above 100%
kalshi
7,530 or above 100%
kalshi
Jul 8Jul 8Jul 8Jul 9Jul 9Jul 9Jul 9Jul 9Jul 9Jul 9Jul 9Jul 9Jul 9Jul 16020406080

Closed: Jul 9, 4:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Description

This event group tracks whether the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closes above various price thresholds on July 9, 2026. Polymarket offers 10 SPY price-level markets ($715–$765), while Kalshi offers 60 S&P 500 index-level markets ($7,350–$7,644 in $5 increments). Both platforms resolve based on end-of-day closing values on the same date.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi resolve on different underlying assets (SPY ETF vs. S&P 500 Index) with distinct data sources (Pyth vs. official index close). While highly correlated, they are not interchangeable and may diverge during market stress or corporate actions.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets. SPY and the S&P 500 Index are not 1:1 equivalent. Confirm the exact conversion ratio and data source reliability (Pyth availability for Polymarket) before placing large positions. Monitor for stock splits or dividend adjustments on Polymarket that could shift the SPY threshold.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves on SPY (ETF) closing price via Pyth data. YES if close > threshold (e.g., $765). Fallback hierarchy: Pyth 1-minute candle close → last valid Pyth price during regular hours → official exchange close. Resolves 50-50 if no valid data or non-trading day. Adjusts target price for stock splits.
  • Kalshi: Resolves on S&P 500 Index end-of-day value. YES if index > threshold (e.g., 7,349.9999). No explicit data-source fallback or corporate-action adjustment rules stated. Thresholds span $7,350–$7,644 in $5 increments.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on July 9?

Kalshi

The S&P 500 price event on July 9, 2026 at 4pm EDT resolves based on the end-of-day index value on that date. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution to Yes if the end-of-day S&P 500 index value exceeds the threshold specified for that outcome (e.g., above 7,349.9999 for the 7,350 level, above 7,354.9999 for the 7,355 level, and so forth through 7,645). The thresholds are spaced at 5-point intervals across the range. All markets in this event close on July 9, 2026 and expire at the sooner of the first release of official index data or one week after July 9, 2026. Per the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets price outcomes through live trader conviction rather than static analyst models. This market's current odds embed real-time reactions to earnings reports, inflation prints, and geopolitical shifts—often faster than consensus revisions. Analysts typically publish target prices quarterly; prediction markets update continuously. When this market shows high conviction in one direction, it often signals that traders perceive a gap between consensus forecasts and actual forward guidance. Comparing the two reveals whether professional equity strategists are lagging market-implied expectations or anchored to outdated assumptions.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and risk tolerances. Polymarket's broader retail base may price in tail-risk scenarios more aggressively, while Kalshi's regulated derivatives framework appeals to institutional hedgers seeking precision. Contract specifications also vary—strike prices, settlement timing, and fee structures create natural arbitrage friction. Market depth and order-book dynamics differ too; thin liquidity on one venue can leave prices stale relative to the other. These structural differences mean identical market conditions can produce materially different odds across platforms, creating opportunities for sophisticated traders.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, monthly employment and inflation reports, corporate earnings surprises, and geopolitical developments affecting risk appetite. Unexpected weakness in consumer spending or manufacturing data typically pushes equity index predictions lower, while positive guidance from mega-cap tech firms can drive bullish repricing. Volatility spikes around central bank meetings and macroeconomic data releases often trigger sharp odds swings. Sector rotations, credit market stress, or changes in interest rate expectations also influence trader positioning. Real-time monitoring of this market reveals how traders weight competing narratives about growth, inflation, and monetary policy heading into the resolution date.

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