TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 2?
polymarket
kalshi

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 2?

Volume:
$550,750

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 2?

 - Polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 2? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 3, 2026

Closed: Apr 2, 4:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 2?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$167,469
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,550 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$83,372
N/A
N/A
$51,987
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,500 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$75,964
N/A
N/A
$39,334
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,525 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$72,670
N/A
N/A
$51,752
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,575 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$59,296
N/A
N/A
$19,808
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,475 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$27,504
N/A
N/A
$5,508
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,450 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,838
N/A
N/A
$3,297
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,375 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,550
N/A
N/A
$2,539
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,400 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,600
N/A
N/A
$1,439
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,425 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,507
N/A
N/A
$1,163
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,250 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$873
N/A
N/A
$573
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,150 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$666
N/A
N/A
$338
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,350 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$605
N/A
N/A
$552
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,025 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$409
N/A
N/A
$409
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,300 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$173
N/A
N/A
$173
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,325 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,050 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,075 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,125 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,225 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,275 or above

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

6,600 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27,614
N/A
N/A
$14,638
Settled
No
kalshi

6,625 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,505
N/A
N/A
$9,665
Settled
No
kalshi

6,650 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,039
N/A
N/A
$1,681
Settled
No
kalshi

6,675 or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,721
N/A
N/A
$1,290
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, April 2, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, April 2, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Polymarket resolves based on directional price movement (Up/Down relative to prior trading day), while Kalshi resolves based on absolute index level thresholds (56 distinct price levels). These markets cannot produce aligned outcomes for the same April 2, 2026 closing value.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets will settle identically. A Polymarket YES (SPX closes higher than April 1) could resolve alongside a Kalshi NO (if April 2 closes below all 56 thresholds, which is impossible given the lowest threshold is 5774.9999). Conversely, Kalshi will almost certainly resolve YES for any realistic SPX close above ~5775, while Polymarket's outcome depends entirely on April 1's closing price. Arbitrage or hedge across platforms only after confirming the April 1 reference price for Polymarket.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Distinct stance: Resolves YES if SPX closes higher than the most recent prior trading day (April 1, 2026), NO if lower, and 50-50 if equal. Uses Wall Street Journal Historical Prices as source. Logic: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, April 2, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.'
  • Kalshi: Distinct stance: Resolves YES if end-of-day SPX on April 2, 2026 exceeds any of 56 absolute price thresholds (ranging from 5774.9999 to 7249.9999); resolves NO if SPX closes at or below the lowest threshold. No reference to prior-day comparison or directional movement. Logic: 'If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value on April 02, 2026 is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.