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OPEN INTEREST:
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406,065
Markets across
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Kalshi:
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Closed: Sep 12, 9:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks which team will score the first touchdown in an upcoming college football game. It includes scenarios where either team scores first or if no touchdown is scored at all during the game, including any overtime periods. The outcome depends purely on the game's live progression and scoring events.
The event determines which team, if any, scores the first touchdown in the Southern Miss vs Auburn college football game scheduled for September 12, 2026. If Auburn scores the first touchdown—whether offensively, defensively, or via special teams, even in overtime—the corresponding market resolves to Yes. The same applies if Southern Miss scores first. If neither team scores a touchdown at any point in the game, including overtime, the “No team scores a TD” market resolves to Yes. Postponements that commence within 48 hours of the original start time do not affect resolution; the market resolves based on the final official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, the market resolves to a fair price. All touchdown types count toward resolution, and Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the NCAA.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market aggregates the predictions of many individuals. If a significant discrepancy exists, it could indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster than sportsbooks to incorporate new information, as they are continuously updated by traders reacting to news and signals.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each team being the first to score a touchdown. As more people buy contracts for a specific outcome, the price of those contracts increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling contracts lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price of a contract represents the market's assessment of the likelihood of that outcome occurring, and all trades are executed transparently on the exchange.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which team scores the first touchdown in the Southern Miss vs Auburn game. The official game results, as reported by recognized sports authorities, will serve as the basis for determining the winning outcome. The platform will verify the result against these sources to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution process.
Several factors could influence the market leading up to the game. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Southern Miss or Auburn would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact trading activity. Pre-game analysis from sports analysts and updated team statistics could shift perceptions of each team’s chances. Even social media sentiment and public betting patterns could contribute to fluctuations in the market as traders react to new information.