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Kalshi:
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Closed: Sep 12, 11:36 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the third quarter of a college football game between Southern Miss and Auburn. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold of points by which either team must win that quarter to resolve as 'Yes'.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the third quarter of the Southern Miss vs Auburn college football game scheduled for September 12, 2026. Only points scored during the third quarter count toward the resolution. If Auburn wins the third quarter by more than the specified threshold (ranging from 2.5 to 23.5 points), the corresponding 'Auburn wins 3Q by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Southern Miss wins the third quarter by more than the specified threshold (2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points), the respective 'Southern Miss wins 3Q by over X points' market resolves to Yes. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, all markets remain open and resolve based on the official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines due to the influence of public opinion and information aggregation. Sportsbooks initially set lines based on their own analysis, while this market evolves as traders buy and sell contracts, incorporating new information and diverse perspectives. It's common to see this market odds move closer to the final outcome as the event approaches, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Analyzing these differences can be a valuable exercise for informed decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy 'yes' contracts (believing the spread will be as indicated or lower) and 'no' contracts (believing the spread will be higher). The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective predictions of the traders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price represents the probability of the spread falling within the range defined by the contract. As more traders participate, the price converges towards what the market believes is the most likely outcome.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final third-quarter spread of the Southern Miss vs Auburn game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing sports organization. Traders holding 'yes' contracts will receive a payout if the actual spread aligns with their prediction, while 'no' contract holders will receive a payout if the spread moves in the opposite direction. The market’s outcome is determined by the official game statistics.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Southern Miss or Auburn teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to impact the game's conditions, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, updates on team strategies or coaching decisions, as well as any late-breaking news related to player availability or team morale, could all contribute to fluctuations in the market price as traders adjust their predictions.