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OPEN INTEREST:
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405,232
Markets across
30,526
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
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Kalshi:
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Closed: Sep 26, 7:57 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of two college football teams in the first quarter of their game, focusing on the margin of victory. It allows participants to speculate on whether one team will dominate early in the match by a specific point differential.
The event determines whether South Carolina or Alabama achieves a specified point differential victory in the first quarter of their college football game scheduled for September 26, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different threshold of points by which either team must lead at the end of the first quarter for the market to resolve as 'Yes'. If no team meets the required margin, the market resolves as 'No'. All outcomes are based exclusively on points scored during the first quarter. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of the original start time, the markets remain active and resolve according to the actual first-quarter result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets will resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to freely buy and sell contracts based on their own assessments. This can lead to discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. While sportsbooks may adjust their lines based on betting patterns, this market dynamically incorporates a wider range of perspectives, potentially offering a more accurate forecast of the game's outcome. It's important to compare both to gain a comprehensive understanding.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy 'yes' contracts (believing the spread will be as indicated or lower) and 'no' contracts (believing the spread will be higher). The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective predictions of the traders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price represents the market’s probability assessment of the spread being within the range defined by the contract. Higher prices indicate a greater likelihood, while lower prices suggest a lower probability. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing perspectives.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first quarter spread of the South Carolina vs Alabama game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final, official result as reported by the governing body of college football. Traders holding 'yes' contracts will receive a payout if the actual spread falls within the contract’s parameters, while those with 'no' contracts will receive a payout if the spread exceeds those parameters. The exact payout amounts are determined by the contract prices at the time of resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the South Carolina or Alabama teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favorable to one team's style of play, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale, as well as significant betting activity in traditional sportsbooks, could all contribute to movement in this market. Public perception and analysis from sports commentators can also play a role in shaping trader sentiment.