TOTAL VOLUME:

$101.9b

24H VOL:

$119,575,967

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,024,173,950

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,176,087,693

185,125

Markets across

18,843

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

1,297

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

44%

VS.

Kalshi:

56%

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kalshi
polymarket

South African Reserve Bank Decision in March?

Volume:
$146,117
PredictionHero
Cut 25bps 100%
kalshi
No Change 100%
polymarket
Maintain current rate 0%
kalshi
Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Feb 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 202620406080100

Closed: Mar 26, 2:00 PM EST

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Description

This event group contains a critical mismatch: the group title references the South African Reserve Bank's March decision, but Kalshi's source data describes the Bank of Mexico's March meeting instead. Polymarket correctly addresses the South African Reserve Bank repo rate decision on March 26, 2026, while Kalshi appears to be sourced from an entirely different central bank's policy meeting.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Source Institution Mismatch: Kalshi's resolution criteria reference Bank of Mexico exclusively, while the event group title and Polymarket both reference South African Reserve Bank. This is a data integrity failure that makes cross-platform settlement impossible.Hero tip: These are two completely different markets on two different central banks. Kalshi is pricing Bank of Mexico March policy decisions; Polymarket is pricing South African Reserve Bank March 26, 2026 repo rate decisions. Do not assume they will settle identically. Clarify the correct underlying asset with each platform before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves YES for any Bank of Mexico action at its March Governing Board meeting: hike 25bps, hike 50bps, hike >50bps, cut 25bps, cut 50bps, cut >50bps, or maintain rate. All seven conditions resolve to YES. Source: Bank of Mexico, not South African Reserve Bank.
  • Polymarket: Three mutually exclusive outcomes based on South African Reserve Bank repo rate change after March 26, 2026 meeting: increase (YES), decrease (YES), or no change (YES). Resolves per official South African Reserve Bank statement. Source: https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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