TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

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61%

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South African Reserve Bank Decision in March?
kalshi
polymarket

South African Reserve Bank Decision in March?

Volume:
$146,117

Cut 25bps

 - Kalshi

Cut 25bps - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 26, 2026

Closed: Mar 26, 2:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Cut 25bps

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$36,914
N/A
N/A
$12,861
Settled
Yes
polymarket

No Change

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,456
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Maintain current rate

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$84,652
N/A
N/A
$36,732
Settled
No
polymarket

Decrease

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,322
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Cut more than 50bps

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,415
N/A
N/A
$2,208
Settled
No
polymarket

Increase

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,340
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Hike 50bps

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,311
N/A
N/A
$2,310
Settled
No
kalshi

Hike more than 50bps

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,625
N/A
N/A
$1,624
Settled
No
kalshi

Hike 25bps

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,246
N/A
N/A
$1,245
Settled
No
kalshi

Cut 50bps

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$836
N/A
N/A
$835
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event group contains a critical mismatch: the group title references the South African Reserve Bank's March decision, but Kalshi's source data describes the Bank of Mexico's March meeting instead. Polymarket correctly addresses the South African Reserve Bank repo rate decision on March 26, 2026, while Kalshi appears to be sourced from an entirely different central bank's policy meeting.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Source Institution Mismatch: Kalshi's resolution criteria reference Bank of Mexico exclusively, while the event group title and Polymarket both reference South African Reserve Bank. This is a data integrity failure that makes cross-platform settlement impossible.Hero tip: These are two completely different markets on two different central banks. Kalshi is pricing Bank of Mexico March policy decisions; Polymarket is pricing South African Reserve Bank March 26, 2026 repo rate decisions. Do not assume they will settle identically. Clarify the correct underlying asset with each platform before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves YES for any Bank of Mexico action at its March Governing Board meeting: hike 25bps, hike 50bps, hike >50bps, cut 25bps, cut 50bps, cut >50bps, or maintain rate. All seven conditions resolve to YES. Source: Bank of Mexico, not South African Reserve Bank.
  • Polymarket: Three mutually exclusive outcomes based on South African Reserve Bank repo rate change after March 26, 2026 meeting: increase (YES), decrease (YES), or no change (YES). Resolves per official South African Reserve Bank statement. Source: https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.