TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
South African Reserve Bank Decision in March?
Volume:
$146,117
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group contains a critical mismatch: the group title references the South African Reserve Bank's March decision, but Kalshi's source data describes the Bank of Mexico's March meeting instead. Polymarket correctly addresses the South African Reserve Bank repo rate decision on March 26, 2026, while Kalshi appears to be sourced from an entirely different central bank's policy meeting.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Source Institution Mismatch: Kalshi's resolution criteria reference Bank of Mexico exclusively, while the event group title and Polymarket both reference South African Reserve Bank. This is a data integrity failure that makes cross-platform settlement impossible.Hero Tip:
These are two completely different markets on two different central banks. Kalshi is pricing Bank of Mexico March policy decisions; Polymarket is pricing South African Reserve Bank March 26, 2026 repo rate decisions. Do not assume they will settle identically. Clarify the correct underlying asset with each platform before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Resolves YES for any Bank of Mexico action at its March Governing Board meeting: hike 25bps, hike 50bps, hike >50bps, cut 25bps, cut 50bps, cut >50bps, or maintain rate. All seven conditions resolve to YES. Source: Bank of Mexico, not South African Reserve Bank.
- Polymarket: Three mutually exclusive outcomes based on South African Reserve Bank repo rate change after March 26, 2026 meeting: increase (YES), decrease (YES), or no change (YES). Resolves per official South African Reserve Bank statement. Source: https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.