TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 26, 11:02 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a soccer match between South Africa and Guinea, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It reflects how analysts and fans might assess the relative strength and performance of the teams based on the final score after regular time.
The event evaluates different winning margins in the South Africa vs Guinea AFCON Qualifiers match scheduled for September 26, 2026. Four distinct outcome conditions are defined, each corresponding to a specific goal differential favoring either South Africa or Guinea. For South Africa, winning by more than 2.5 goals or more than 1.5 goals triggers a 'Yes' resolution for their respective markets. Similarly, Guinea winning by more than 1.5 goals or more than 2.5 goals also resolves to 'Yes' for their respective markets. All resolutions are determined solely by the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. The event operates independently of official league affiliations, with all trademarks and branding belonging to their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often differ from those found at sportsbooks, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd rather than a bookmaker's assessment. Sportsbooks set lines to balance their risk and ensure profit, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of people believe a particular outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price will move accordingly. This can lead to opportunities for informed traders who identify discrepancies between the two. It’s important to note that prediction markets allow for more nuanced trading than simple bets, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the South Africa vs Guinea match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating greater confidence. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions as the event approaches. The current market reflects the collective intelligence of those participating.
This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the South Africa vs Guinea match, as determined by official sources. The platform will verify the data to ensure accuracy and finalize the settlement of all contracts. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches to understand any potential factors that could influence the final result.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or unexpected weather conditions could influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, updates on team performance in preceding matches or shifts in expert analysis could also impact the price. Major geopolitical events or unforeseen circumstances affecting travel or the event’s logistics could also play a role. As the match date nears, even minor updates can have a disproportionate effect on the market as traders refine their predictions based on the latest information.