TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 15, 11:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the exact final score of the upcoming Copa Sudamericana match between São Paulo FC and CA Boca Juniors. Currently, the consensus probability favors a 1-1 draw at 100%, while the second most likely outcome, a 2-1 São Paulo FC victory, is estimated at 0.1%. This aggregation combines data from Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution based on official match statistics – or failing that, data from Flashscore and Sofascore – as defined by the event organizers. Keep an eye on the match itself, scheduled for September 15, 2026, as the final score at the end of regulation time plus stoppage time will determine the outcome.
In the upcoming Copa Sudamericana game between São Paulo FC and CA Boca Juniors, scheduled for September 15, 2026 at 8:30 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the São Paulo FC vs. CA Boca Juniors match originally scheduled for September 15, 2026 at 8:30 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
If Sao Paulo advance past Boca Juniors in the Sao Paulo vs Boca Juniors soccer tie in the Quarterfinal of the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, then the market resolves to Yes. If Boca Juniors advance past Sao Paulo in the Sao Paulo vs Boca Juniors soccer tie in the Quarterfinal of the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction market odds, like those displayed for this market, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to profit from margins, while prediction markets allow participants to directly express their beliefs. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment diverges from expert opinion. It’s possible to find value by comparing the implied probabilities from both sources and identifying potential mispricings in this market.
Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and fee structure, which influence price discovery. Furthermore, the availability of different markets on each platform—Polymarket currently focuses on the exact score, while Kalshi offers markets on overall advancement—can attract different types of traders and lead to varying assessments of the event’s probability. Differences in trading volume between the two platforms also contribute to price discrepancies.