TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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São Bernardo FC vs. Avaí FC
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of São Bernardo FC vs. Avaí FC?

Volume:
$558,982

Tie

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 18, 2026

Closed: Jul 17, 8:01 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tie

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$202,394
N/A
N/A
$117,684
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw (São Bernardo FC vs. Avaí FC)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,318
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Sao Bernardo

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$193,246
N/A
N/A
$74,722
Settled
No
polymarket

São Bernardo FC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,094
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Avai

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$148,308
N/A
N/A
$73,423
Settled
No
polymarket

Avaí FC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,622
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers a Brazilian Série B football match between São Bernardo FC and Avaí FC scheduled for July 17, 2026. Three prediction markets track the outcome: São Bernardo win, Avaí win, and draw. All markets resolve based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market structure is logically incoherent (all three mutually exclusive outcomes map to Yes resolution), and Polymarket's three separate markets have asymmetric cancellation rules that create unequal risk exposure across outcomes.Hero tip: Do not trade Kalshi until the market is corrected. On Polymarket, the draw market is the only outcome with upside protection in a full cancellation scenario; win markets are not. Arbitrage may exist if one platform's cancellation probability differs from the other's implicit pricing.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Three separate binary markets with asymmetric cancellation logic. São Bernardo win and Avaí win markets resolve No on full cancellation; draw market resolves Yes on full cancellation. Primary source is CBF (Brazilian Football Confederation) official statistics, with 2-hour fallback to credible reporting consensus. All markets settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time only.
  • Kalshi: Market structure presents three conditions (Sao Bernardo wins, Avai wins, Tie) each resolving to Yes, creating a logical impossibility. Only one outcome can occur in a single match, yet all three are mapped to Yes. No cancellation or postponement rules are specified. This market is unresolvable as written.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming Brazil Serie B game, scheduled for Friday, July 17, 2026 between São Bernardo FC and Avaí FC.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the final result of the Sao Bernardo vs Avai Brasileiro Serie B match after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Each outcome—Sao Bernardo win, Avai win, or tie—resolves its corresponding market to Yes based on the match result. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled more than two weeks from the original July 17, 2026 date, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with established rules.

Frequently asked questions

PredictionHero aggregates trader sentiment on the São Bernardo vs. Avaí match across Polymarket and Kalshi, letting you monitor real-time odds on multiple outcomes simultaneously. The dashboard displays how each platform's community is pricing the result, from match winner to draw scenarios. By tracking both venues side by side, you gain visibility into consensus views and spot divergences that may signal value. This cross-platform approach helps traders identify arbitrage opportunities and understand where the broader prediction market stands on this fixture.

Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on peer-to-peer pricing: traders buy and sell shares directly, and the final price reflects collective belief rather than a bookmaker's margin. Sportsbooks, by contrast, set odds to balance liability and lock in profit. Prediction market odds often react faster to breaking news and tend to carry lower vig, making them attractive for informed bettors. However, sportsbooks may offer better liquidity on major events. Comparing both sources helps you calibrate your view and identify where the market may be mispricing this match.

Key injury announcements, lineup changes, or managerial shifts at either club can shift odds significantly. Recent form, head-to-head history, and league standings often drive trader positioning in the days leading up to kickoff. Weather conditions and venue factors may also influence perception of match dynamics. Breaking news about player suspensions, COVID-related absences, or unexpected roster moves typically triggers sharp repricing. Monitoring team social media, official league communications, and sports news outlets will help you stay ahead of market moves and identify inflection points where this market may gap.