TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 19, 7:23 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting whether a specific team will win the second half of a college football game by a margin exceeding various point thresholds. Each market corresponds to a different point differential, allowing for varied betting opportunities based on expected performance in the latter half of the game.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the second half (including overtime) of the SMU vs Louisville college football game scheduled for September 19, 2026. For SMU markets, resolution occurs if SMU outscores Louisville by more than the specified threshold points in the second half. For Louisville markets, resolution occurs if Louisville outscores SMU by more than the specified threshold points in the second half. Only points scored during the second half, including overtime periods, are considered for resolution. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, the markets remain open and resolve according to the final official result. If the game fails to start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set their lines based on models and attempt to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook line is inaccurate, they can express that view by trading contracts, potentially driving the price away from the sportsbook's initial offering. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information becomes available and the event draws closer.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second half of the game. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. Buyers are expressing a belief that the spread is *more* likely than the current price indicates, while sellers believe it is *less* likely. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven entirely by supply and demand from traders on the platform, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the potential outcome.
This market resolves around Sep 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread for the second half of the SMU vs Louisville game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of college football. The market will determine which contracts pay out based on whether the actual point spread falls within the range defined by each contract’s spread. All winning contracts will pay out $1.00 per contract.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the SMU or Louisville teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to affect the style of play, could also move the market. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about team strategy or coaching decisions could influence trader sentiment. Public perception, as reflected in polls or analyst predictions, can also contribute to price fluctuations as traders react to new information.