TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 26, 10:55 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a soccer match between Slovenia and Scotland, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a specific goal differential threshold. The result is determined solely by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates multiple potential outcomes of the Slovenia vs Scotland UEFA Nations League match scheduled for September 26, 2026, based on the goal differential between the two teams after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Four distinct conditions are considered: Slovenia winning by more than 2.5 goals, Slovenia winning by more than 1.5 goals, Scotland winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Scotland winning by more than 2.5 goals. If any of these conditions are met, the respective associated market resolves to 'Yes'. Each condition operates independently, allowing for multiple markets to resolve positively depending on the match's final score. The resolution is strictly based on the official match result, and Kalshi disclaims any formal affiliation with the governing league or ownership of related trademarks, logos, and brand names.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines based on their models and risk management, while this market allows individuals to express their own beliefs about the likely spread. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook odds, it could indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the event, or that new information hasn’t yet been fully incorporated into sportsbook lines. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different spread outcomes. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective predictions of the traders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions are correct and lose if they are wrong. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a market price that accurately represents the probability of each spread occurring in the Slovenia vs Scotland match.
This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread of the Slovenia vs Scotland match, as determined by official sources, will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Successful contracts will be those that accurately predicted the final spread. The resolution process is designed to be objective and transparent, relying on publicly available data to ensure a fair and accurate outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 26, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Slovenia or Scotland would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather forecasts could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about key players, coaching changes, or even public statements from team personnel could all contribute to price movements. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market.