TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
SK Sigma Olomouc vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05
Volume:
$210,369
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a UEFA Europa Conference League match between SK Sigma Olomouc (Czech Republic) and 1. FSV Mainz 05 (Germany) scheduled for March 12, 2026. Markets are offered on both platforms to predict the winner or draw outcome based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket's draw market contains a non-standard cancellation clause (resolves YES if game canceled entirely with no makeup), while Kalshi's three mutually exclusive outcome markets do not explicitly address full cancellation, creating potential inconsistency in edge case scenarios.Hero Tip:
For normal match completion, all platforms align on 90-minute regulation plus stoppage time resolution. The divergence only manifests if the match is canceled with no rescheduled makeup game. Traders should assume normal match completion is most likely; if cancellation risk emerges, Polymarket's draw market becomes a de facto cancellation hedge while Kalshi's resolution becomes ambiguous.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Offers three separate binary markets (Olomouc win, Mainz win, draw). Draw market uniquely resolves YES if game is canceled entirely with no makeup. Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve Yes.' Postponements keep market open until completion.
- Kalshi: Presents three mutually exclusive outcomes (Mainz win, Tie, Olomouc win), each resolving YES if that outcome occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit cancellation clause provided. Implicitly assumes one of the three outcomes will occur.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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