TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Target Streams: 1,338,425
- Kalshi
Target Streams: 1,338,425 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved May 30, 2026
Closed: May 30, 4:52 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Sabrina Carpenter's track SINGULAR ACT I will accumulate more than 1,338,425 streams on Luminate during the May 22–28 tracking week. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently sits at 47.5%. Resolution will be determined by official Luminate streaming data for that specific week. Watch the final streaming counts as they close out on May 28 to see whether the track crosses the 1,338,425 threshold.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money bets from traders and differ from traditional analyst forecasts, which rely on historical streaming patterns and industry models. While analysts may estimate typical first-week performance for Sabrina Carpenter releases, prediction markets incorporate live sentiment and breaking news about promotional activity, playlist placements, and fan engagement. The market-derived probability offers a dynamic, crowd-sourced alternative to static analyst predictions and updates as new data emerges throughout the tracking week.
On Kalshi, SINGULAR ACT I streams are priced as a binary contract: traders buy or sell shares corresponding to whether the track will exceed 1,338,425 Luminate streams from May 22–28. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current market probability reflects the collective assessment of whether Sabrina Carpenter's release will hit that threshold. Share prices range from $0 to $1, and your profit or loss depends on the final settlement. Traders can enter and exit positions throughout the event window, allowing real-time adjustment as streaming data and promotional momentum shift.
The market resolves on Jun 1, 2026. Resolution is determined by official Luminate streaming data for SINGULAR ACT I by Sabrina Carpenter collected during the May 22–28 tracking period. The outcome hinges on whether the track's total streams exceed the 1,338,425 threshold. Once the tracking week closes and Luminate publishes final figures, the contract settles based on that verified count. Traders holding winning positions receive their payout, while losing positions expire worthless.
Key catalysts include playlist additions on major streaming services, social media momentum, radio airplay announcements, and any promotional campaigns Sabrina Carpenter launches. Chart performance updates, fan engagement metrics, and competitor release schedules can also shift market odds. Early-week streaming velocity is critical—if the track front-loads significantly, odds of hitting 1,338,425 will rise. Conversely, slower-than-expected uptake or competing releases could lower the probability. Real-time streaming data leaks or industry commentary may also trigger sharp repricing as traders reassess the likelihood of reaching the target.
