TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 27, 2026
Closed: Sep 27, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of Luke Bryan's song "Signs" during a specific week in 2026, focusing on how many times it is streamed in the U.S. The outcome depends on whether the stream count surpasses various thresholds, offering different levels of achievement to predict.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds for streams of Luke Bryan's song "Signs" within the U.S. during the week of September 18–24, 2026. Each threshold—ranging from 50,000 to 10 million streams—is assessed against data provided by Luminate’s API. The market resolves to "Yes" for any threshold that is met or exceeded, with the resolution occurring at 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday following the tracking week. Luminate serves as the neutral data source and does not influence or endorse the market outcomes. Predictors must gauge the likelihood of the song achieving each specified level of streaming success within the defined period.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect, potentially identifying insights that individual analysts might miss. If analysts predict a certain streaming performance for 'Signs', the odds on Kalshi will show whether traders agree or disagree with that assessment. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. Significant differences between the market and analyst expectations could indicate a strong contrarian signal, suggesting the crowd believes something the experts do not.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the total number of 'Signs' first week streams. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more people buy contracts predicting higher stream counts, the price of those contracts increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds continuously adjust to incorporate new information and changing sentiment among traders. The goal is for the market price to accurately reflect the true probability of each outcome.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the officially reported streaming numbers for 'Signs' during its first week of release. These numbers will be sourced from major streaming platforms and verified against credible public sources. The specific metrics used to determine the outcome will be the total number of streams across all major platforms during that initial seven-day period. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the final, verified streaming count.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Sep 27, 2026. Early box office numbers, if available before the streaming data, could provide an initial indication of the film's popularity and influence trading activity. Positive or negative critical reviews could also sway sentiment, impacting the perceived likelihood of strong streaming performance. Unexpected marketing pushes or viral social media trends surrounding 'Signs' could further boost interest and drive up the predicted stream counts. Finally, any news related to the availability of the film on different streaming platforms could also affect the market.
