TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 19, 7:36 AM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates how many goals will be scored in an upcoming professional soccer match between Shimizu and United Chiba. The outcome depends on whether the total goals exceed specific thresholds by the end of regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootout scenarios.
The markets resolve based on the total number of goals scored during the Shimizu vs United Chiba professional Japan J1 League soccer match scheduled for September 19, 2026, counting only goals scored within the 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time added by the referee. Extra time and penalty shootout goals are explicitly excluded from consideration. Each market corresponds to a different threshold of total goals (0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, and 5.5), with the market resolving to 'Yes' if the actual total goals exceed the respective threshold. All markets share the same event context and timing specifications, ensuring consistency across the different goal-count thresholds.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals freely trading based on their own analysis. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially early on, as prediction markets can incorporate information and viewpoints not fully captured by sportsbook algorithms. Comparing the two can be a valuable exercise for informed decision-making, though it's important to remember they represent different approaches to forecasting the event's outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different total goal outcomes in the Shimizu vs Chiba match. The price of each contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring; a higher price indicates a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the collective prediction. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and provide a real-time forecast of the total goals scored.
This market resolves around Sep 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final total goals scored in the Shimizu vs Chiba match will be used to determine the winning contract. Any goals scored during regular time or added time will be counted towards the total. The resolution will be based on official match data and statistics, ensuring a transparent and accurate outcome. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the movement of this market. News regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Shimizu or Chiba would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could affect the style of play and potentially the number of goals scored. Unexpected tactical decisions by either manager, or even early goals in the match itself, could also cause the market to shift. Any updates regarding team form or recent performance will also be closely watched by traders, leading to adjustments in the prices of contracts.