TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 12, 8:01 AM EST
Kalshi
This event focuses on determining which team wins the match and by how much, specifically looking at significant goal differentials.
The event resolves based on the margin of victory in the Shimizu vs Avispa professional Japan J1 League soccer game scheduled for September 12, 2026. Markets resolve to Yes if Shimizu wins by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, or if Avispa wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. All outcomes are determined solely by the official match result.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially as an event approaches. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or seek to profit from public perception, while this market aggregates diverse opinions. However, initial sportsbook lines can sometimes offer value if they diverge significantly from the prediction market price. It’s important to compare both to identify potential discrepancies and make informed decisions, but remember that this market represents a unique forecast based on traders’ collective judgment.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing potential outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The market depth indicates the volume of contracts available at different price points, giving an indication of the strength of conviction behind various predictions. The goal is to accurately forecast the final result of the Shimizu vs Avispa match.
This market resolves around Sep 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Shimizu vs Avispa match, specifically the spread as determined by official match statistics. The platform will verify the result against trusted sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will forfeit their stake. This process ensures a fair and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to Sep 12, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, or changes in coaching staff for either Shimizu or Avispa could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected weather conditions on match day could also play a role, potentially impacting the style of play and outcome. Furthermore, major tactical announcements or shifts in public sentiment, reflected in media coverage and social media trends, can all contribute to price movements. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding the evolving dynamics of this market.