TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 18, 11:50 AM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming match between Shanghai Shenhua FC and Beijing Guoan FC, scheduled for July 11, 2026 at 7:35 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Shanghai Shenhua FC" if Shanghai Shenhua FC are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Beijing Guoan FC" if Beijing Guoan FC are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
In the upcoming match between Shanghai Shenhua FC and Beijing Guoan FC, scheduled for July 11, 2026 at 7:35 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Shanghai Shenhua FC" if Shanghai Shenhua FC are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Beijing Guoan FC" if Beijing Guoan FC are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance action and protect their margins, while prediction markets like this one are driven by trader consensus and real-money commitments. Sportsbooks may adjust lines more slowly in response to breaking news, whereas this market can shift rapidly as new information surfaces. Neither source is inherently more accurate, but comparing them can reveal where one venue perceives edge or where public sentiment differs from professional oddsmaking.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The cost of each share fluctuates based on the ratio of shares outstanding and cumulative trading volume. As traders place orders, the price adjusts to reflect their collective belief about which team will score first. This continuous pricing model ensures liquidity and allows participants to enter or exit positions at transparent, real-time rates throughout the trading window.
This market resolves around Jul 11, 2026, once the match between Shanghai Shenhua FC and Beijing Guoan FC concludes and the first goal is verified. The outcome is confirmed through credible public reporting of the match result, including official team records and reputable sports media coverage. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout once resolution is finalized. The market remains open for trading until the event occurs, allowing participants to adjust positions based on pre-match developments.
Several catalysts can shift odds before the match kicks off. Team news such as player injuries, suspensions, or lineup announcements often trigger sharp price movements, as do changes in manager tactics or recent form. Weather conditions at the venue and historical head-to-head records may influence trader positioning. Late-breaking betting syndicate activity or sharp money entering the market can also accelerate repricing. Additionally, any official updates regarding match timing or venue changes could prompt traders to reassess their positions and adjust their exposure accordingly.