TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 11, 5:04 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Ilya Ivashka and Yi Zhou in the Shanghai, originally scheduled for September 10, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ilya Ivashka' if Ilya Ivashka advances against Yi Zhou. This market will resolve to 'Yi Zhou' if Yi Zhou advances against Ilya Ivashka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Ilya Ivashka and Yi Zhou in the Shanghai, originally scheduled for September 10, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ilya Ivashka' if Ilya Ivashka advances against Yi Zhou. This market will resolve to 'Yi Zhou' if Yi Zhou advances against Ilya Ivashka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning closely with sportsbook odds, but sometimes diverging based on unique information or perspectives held by traders. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome, potentially leading to different probabilities. Discrepancies can arise from differing opinions on player form, injury news, or even psychological factors influencing the match. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to new information than traditional sportsbooks.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the probability of a particular outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares, the price increases, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price is determined solely by supply and demand within Polymarket, and the platform facilitates the matching of buy and sell orders to establish a fair price for each share.
This market resolves around Sep 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Ilya Ivashka vs Yi Zhou match as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The market will determine which outcome—Ivashka winning or Zhou winning—is the accurate result. The platform will then distribute payouts to those who correctly predicted the winner based on their share holdings in the winning outcome.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing surface conditions, or even weather forecasts could shift the perceived probabilities. Unexpected results in other matches leading up to the Ivashka vs Zhou match could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, any updates on player form, coaching changes, or psychological factors affecting either player could lead to substantial movement in the market. Major upsets in related tournaments or significant shifts in public opinion could also play a role.