TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 10, 11:32 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks how decisively either team wins the final quarter of a football game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams. It focuses solely on the point differential in the last quarter, ignoring the overall game outcome or any overtime periods.
This event evaluates various point differentials by which either the San Francisco 49ers or the Los Angeles Rams win the fourth quarter of their scheduled game on September 10, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold that the winning team's lead must exceed for a 'Yes' resolution. All markets exclusively consider points scored during the fourth quarter of regulation time, with overtime points excluded from calculation. The thresholds range from narrow margins like over 2.5 points to larger margins such as over 10.5 points, offering multiple levels of certainty regarding the magnitude of the quarter's outcome. The resolution hinges entirely on the point difference between the two teams at the end of the fourth quarter, irrespective of the game's overall result.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and perspectives beyond those considered by traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbooks set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs, potentially leading to more accurate predictions as new information emerges. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster than sportsbook odds in response to breaking news or shifts in public sentiment, though discrepancies can exist due to differing market participants and risk tolerance.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different fourth quarter spreads for the 49ers-Rams game. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective belief. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if more people believe the 49ers will cover a certain spread, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final fourth quarter point spread of the 49ers-Rams game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the game’s governing body. The contract corresponding to the actual fourth quarter spread will pay out $1.00, while all other contracts will pay out $0.00. Traders should monitor official sources for the final score to understand the resolution of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries to either the 49ers or the Rams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team’s playing style, could also impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or team morale might also shift sentiment. Finally, large volume trades from informed participants could signal shifts in expectations and drive price fluctuations in this market.