TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 10, 10:57 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting the outcome of a specific quarter in an upcoming football game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams. It centers on whether one team will dominate the third quarter by a certain margin over the other. The outcome depends solely on performance during that quarter, ignoring the rest of the game.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in favor of either the LA Rams or SF 49ers exclusively during the third quarter of the game scheduled for September 10, 2026. Each market has a different threshold for the point margin required for resolution, ranging from over 2.5 points to over 10.5 points. Only points scored in the third quarter count toward determining the outcome. If the specified team meets or exceeds the required margin during that quarter, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets are independent, and the broader game result outside the third quarter is irrelevant to any resolution.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and beliefs. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it could indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. It's a useful comparison point for anyone analyzing the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the 49ers-Rams 3rd quarter. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts dynamically, providing a real-time view of expectations. The current price indicates what traders collectively believe is the most likely outcome for the 3rd quarter spread.
This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final 3rd quarter spread is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the game as reported by official sources. The contract corresponding to the actual 3rd quarter spread will pay out $100, while all other contracts will pay out $0. Traders will be able to claim their winnings shortly after the official result is confirmed.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the 49ers or the Rams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team’s style of play, could also impact trading activity. In-game performance during the first and second quarters, even if not directly affecting the 3rd quarter, could lead traders to reassess their probabilities. Public sentiment and late-breaking analysis from sports commentators could also play a role.