TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 10, 11:35 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting the point differential in the second half of an upcoming football game between two teams. Each market specifies a different threshold for how many points one team must win by in that half to resolve as 'Yes'.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the second half (excluding overtime) of the specified football game. Each market defines a specific point threshold that the LA Rams or SF 49ers must exceed to win. If the winning team surpasses their respective threshold by more than the stated points, the market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. Only points scored during the second half count toward these outcomes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. Often, prediction markets are considered more accurate than traditional forecasts, especially when the event is complex or subject to insider information. However, sportsbook odds provide a useful benchmark for comparison, and discrepancies can present opportunities for informed traders to exploit perceived mispricings in either market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second half. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices, as they profit from correctly predicting the outcome. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will adjust to reflect the latest consensus view on the 49ers-Rams second half spread.
This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official second half spread as determined by the game's official statistics. The final spread will be compared to the contracts traded on Kalshi to determine which contracts will pay out and at what value. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout, while those who bet on the incorrect spread will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the 49ers or the Rams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the passing or running game, could also shift the market. Additionally, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions might influence traders' perceptions of the likely second half spread. Public sentiment and large bet sizes from informed traders can also contribute to price fluctuations.