TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$87,997,338
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,395,155,069
395,664
Markets across
30,076
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,626
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 1:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether John Bates will score one or more touchdowns in the Seattle vs Washington pro football game. Currently, Kalshi gives a 24.0% probability to Bates scoring at least one touchdown, while Stefon Diggs scoring two or more touchdowns is at 21.0%. The market will resolve based on whether the SEA Seahawks D/ST scores at least one touchdown during the game, as determined by the official game results. Keep an eye on the game itself, scheduled for September 27, 2026, as the outcome will depend on whether either team’s defense can find the endzone during the contest.
Both markets resolve based on whether the respective defensive units score at least one touchdown in the specified game. If a defensive unit is active but never takes a snap, the market settles to the fair market price before the game starts. However, once the unit takes at least one snap—even if that play is later nullified by a penalty—the market outcome is determined solely by whether the defense scores a touchdown during the game. These rules ensure clarity around scenarios where a team's defensive unit might not participate fully but still has an opportunity to affect the outcome.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may initially incorporate biases or react quickly to news, while this market aggregates diverse opinions. As more information becomes available and betting activity increases, the prices in this market tend to become more accurate reflections of the true probability of different outcomes. It’s common to see convergence between prediction market prices and sportsbook odds closer to the event date, though discrepancies can still occur due to differing market participants and risk assessments.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. For example, a contract priced at 60 means there's a 60% implied probability of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand. This creates a real-time assessment of expectations for the total touchdowns scored in the game.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of touchdowns scored in the Seattle vs Washington football game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and verified against credible public sources. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct number of touchdowns will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Injury reports for key players on either the Seahawks or Huskies are significant catalysts, as they directly impact offensive capabilities. Weather forecasts also play a role, with adverse conditions potentially limiting scoring opportunities. Unexpected news regarding team strategies or coaching decisions could also shift market sentiment. Finally, any significant public information or analysis regarding the likely game outcome, such as expert predictions or changes in betting lines at sportsbooks, could all contribute to fluctuations in this market.