TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 23, 11:13 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on determining whether one team significantly outperforms the other specifically in the final quarter of an upcoming football game. Each market corresponds to different point spreads that must be overcome by either Seattle or Tennessee during that quarter alone.
These markets evaluate the performance difference between Seattle and Tennessee exclusively in the 4th quarter of their scheduled game on August 23, 2026, excluding any overtime periods. Resolution depends solely on the point differential achieved by the end of regulation in the 4th quarter, with each market requiring Tennessee or Seattle to win that quarter by a specific margin—ranging from just over 2.5 points to more than 10.5 points. All markets share the same secondary rule: only points scored during the 4th quarter count, meaning earlier quarters' scores are irrelevant. The outcome hinges strictly on the final score difference within that designated quarter, making each market a distinct threshold for evaluating dominance in the game's closing stages.
Compared to traditional sportsbook lines, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a different risk assessment because they are driven purely by trader sentiment and recent developments in the teams' performances. While sportsbooks may adjust their lines based on broader public betting patterns and historical data, this market captures a more focused, real-time view of how informed participants expect the 4th quarter point spread to play out.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the price through continuous bidding, with the current top outcome reflecting the collective belief about which team will cover the 4th quarter spread. The market's probability output is derived from the active order book and recent trades, showing how the venue's users are positioning themselves based on analysis, news, and game flow.
This market resolves around Aug 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is determined by the actual point differential in the 4th quarter of the game, and the market will close when official scores are published and can no longer change.
Injuries to key players, coaching strategies revealed in pre-game reports, and weather conditions on game day could all shift this market. Additionally, any significant performance trends from recent matchups or practice sessions may influence trader sentiment, causing rapid changes in odds as the game approaches and the final quarter nears.