TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 9, 9:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This baseball event focuses on the outcome of the first seven innings of the Seattle vs Miami game on July 9, 2026, rather than the full nine-inning result. Bettors predict which team will be ahead after seven complete innings or whether the score will be tied at that point.
Resolution is based on the score at the end of the first seven innings of the Seattle vs Miami professional baseball game originally scheduled for July 9, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT. If Seattle has more runs after seven innings, the Seattle outcome resolves to Yes. If Miami has more runs after seven innings, the Miami outcome resolves to Yes. If the teams are tied after seven innings, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes and all team outcomes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets aggregate the beliefs of traders who have real money at stake. This market may show odds that differ from traditional sportsbooks, particularly if informed traders spot value or if public sentiment on the prediction platform differs from casual betting patterns. Comparing the two can reveal where the market perceives an edge.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for shares representing each possible outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the marginal trade—the last executed transaction—and moves as new orders flow in. Traders profit by correctly predicting the first seven innings result, and the market price converges toward the true probability as more information becomes available and more capital enters the book.
This market resolves around Jul 10, 2026, once the first seven innings of the Seattle vs Miami game have concluded and the result is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the official final score after exactly seven innings have been played. Resolution occurs automatically once the event data is confirmed, and all shares are settled according to the winning outcome.
Key catalysts for this market include injury announcements, lineup changes, weather updates, and recent team performance trends. Starting pitcher form, bullpen availability, and head-to-head matchup history can all shift trader expectations before first pitch. Breaking news about player availability or field conditions may trigger sharp repricing. As game time approaches, any last-minute roster adjustments or weather delays could prompt significant volume and volatility in this market.