TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 5:25 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks which team or category will score the first touchdown in an upcoming football game between Seattle and Arizona. It includes possibilities for either team's defense scoring or no touchdown being scored at all during the game.
The event determines whether the Arizona Cardinals defense, the Seattle Seahawks defense, or No Touchdown will score the first touchdown in the professional football game scheduled for September 20, 2026. If either defensive unit scores the first touchdown, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. If no touchdowns are scored by either team throughout the game, the No Touchdown market resolves to Yes. For markets involving defensive units that are active but do not take a snap, settlement occurs at the fair market price before the game starts. Once a defensive unit takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market settles based on whether they score the first touchdown. If neither team scores any touchdowns during the game, the No Touchdown market resolves to Yes, and all other player markets resolve to No. The settlement mechanism ensures clarity regardless of game dynamics, including scenarios where teams or defensive units do not participate in plays.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, particularly closer to the event. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while Kalshi allows traders to directly set prices based on their own assessments. However, initial sportsbook lines can sometimes influence the early movement in this market. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant betting volume accumulates, as differing information and opinions are weighed by bettors on Kalshi.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each player scoring the first touchdown. As more people buy a contract, the price increases, reflecting a higher perceived chance of that outcome. Conversely, selling contracts lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract represents the cost to own one unit of exposure to that outcome, and it fluctuates based on supply and demand. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities.
This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, following the conclusion of the Seattle versus Arizona game. The outcome will be determined by which player officially scores the first touchdown, as verified against credible public reporting of the game results. The official game statistics will be the basis for confirming the winning outcome in this market. Any scoring plays subject to review will be resolved based on the final ruling from the official game authorities. The market will then settle accordingly, distributing payouts to contract holders.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather conditions could shift the probabilities. A key player being ruled out would likely cause a substantial movement in the odds for their teammates and opponents. Pre-game analysis from sports analysts and updated sportsbook lines can also influence trading activity. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi from informed bettors could create momentum and drive price changes as the game approaches. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market.