TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
predict
polymarket

Will either team score in the first inning of Seattle vs Tampa Bay?

Volume:
$176,103

Tampa Bay Rays

 - Polymarket

Tampa Bay Rays - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 4:10 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Tampa Bay Rays

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays

View
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$332
$3,493
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Yes

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$172,465
N/A
N/A
$114,549
Settled
No
polymarket

Seattle Mariners

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$90
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$41
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group covers the Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays MLB game scheduled for July 11, 2026. Markets span three distinct scopes: full-game winner (Predict), first-inning run occurrence (Kalshi), and first-5-innings leader/tie outcome (Polymarket). The group exhibits significant scope divergence across platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Three platforms define markets on different temporal scopes within the same game: Predict covers the full game, Kalshi covers only the first inning, and Polymarket covers the first five innings. These are structurally independent markets, not variations of a single event.Hero tip: Treat each platform's market as a standalone prediction. Kalshi resolves first (after inning 1), then Polymarket (after inning 5), then Predict (after full game). Outcomes are independent—a Yes on Kalshi does not predict Polymarket or Predict outcomes. Monitor each separately.

Critical divergence points:

  • Predict: Full-game winner market. Resolves to Mariners or Rays based on final game score. Postponement keeps market open; cancellation with no makeup resolves 50-50. Primary source: official MLB final statistics within 24 hours or credible reporting consensus.
  • Kalshi: First-inning run occurrence (binary). Resolves Yes if either team scores in inning 1, No otherwise. Game originally scheduled Jul 10, 2026 at 7:10 PM EDT (note: date/time conflict with other platforms).
  • Polymarket: First-5-innings leader or tie (three-way outcome). Resolves to Mariners, Rays, or Draw based on score at end of inning 5. Postponement keeps market open; cancellation with no makeup resolves 50-50. Primary source: official MLB statistics within 24 hours or credible reporting consensus.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for July 11 at 4:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

If either team scores a run in the first inning of the Seattle vs Tampa Bay professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 10, 2026 at 7:10 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Predict

In the upcoming MLB game between the Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for July 11 at 4:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners win the game. This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Frequently asked questions

The first inning run market aggregates trader predictions across Kalshi and Predict, tracking which team will score first during the opening frame of the Seattle Mariners versus Tampa Bay Rays matchup. This market has drawn volume of $176,103 across both venues, reflecting active interest in early-game momentum. Traders on each platform independently price their forecasts, creating a real-time consensus view of which team holds the edge to break through first. The dashboard consolidates these cross-platform signals, helping you compare how different prediction communities assess the likelihood of an early run.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price outcomes differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets rely on trader consensus to discover prices. This market reflects what thousands of independent traders believe will happen, often incorporating real-time information faster than traditional oddsmakers update their lines. Comparing the two can reveal where public perception diverges from professional bookmaking, though both sources offer valuable perspectives on game outcomes.

Kalshi and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and trading strategies, which naturally produces price variation. Kalshi and Predict may weight recent team performance, injury reports, or weather conditions differently based on their user base's collective analysis. Market depth also influences pricing: a platform with concentrated volume in one outcome can show wider spreads or more extreme odds than a venue with distributed interest. These differences create arbitrage opportunities for sharp traders and highlight why monitoring both venues provides a fuller picture of market sentiment.

Lineup announcements, starting pitcher changes, and injury updates for key batters or pitchers can shift trader expectations significantly. Weather conditions at game time—wind speed, temperature, and humidity—affect ball carry and scoring likelihood. Recent offensive and defensive performance trends, bullpen availability, and head-to-head matchup history all influence how traders reassess the probability of an early run. Breaking news about roster moves or manager decisions in the hours before first pitch often triggers sharp repricing as new information flows into both platforms.