TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,590,312

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,439,516,703

404,175

Markets across

30,277

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket
predict

Who will win the first 5 innings: Mariners or Marlins?

Volume:
$265,797

Over 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings

 - Kalshi

Over 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 10, 2026

Closed: Jul 9, 8:24 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Over 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$102,657
N/A
N/A
$52,043
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 3.5 runs in the first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$77,320
N/A
N/A
$49,660
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 5.5 runs in the first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$40,612
N/A
N/A
$22,340
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 6.5 runs in the first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$18,055
N/A
N/A
$9,905
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,704
N/A
N/A
$2,460
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 1.5 runs in the first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,133
N/A
N/A
$1,913
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 0.5 runs in the first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,861
N/A
N/A
$1,765
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Miami Marlins

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$103
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins

View
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$2,037
$18,671
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Seattle Mariners

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$664
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This event group covers the Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins MLB game scheduled for July 9, 2026 at 6:40 PM ET. Markets span three distinct scopes: full-game winner (Predict), first-5-innings winner/draw (Polymarket), and first-5-innings combined run totals (Kalshi). The core divergence is scope: Predict resolves on full-game outcome, while Polymarket and Kalshi both focus on first-5-innings action but measure different things.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Three distinct market scopes exist within the same event group: full-game winner (Predict), first-5-innings leader/draw (Polymarket), and first-5-innings run totals (Kalshi). These measure different settlement events and cannot be unified into a single resolution framework.Hero tip: Recognize that these are three separate prediction markets with different time horizons and metrics. A trader bullish on Seattle's full-game chances should not assume Seattle leads after 5 innings. Similarly, high run-scoring in the first 5 innings is independent of the final game outcome. Manage each market position separately.

Critical divergence points:

  • Predict: Full-game winner market. Resolves to Seattle Mariners or Miami Marlins based on final game result. Postponement keeps market open; cancellation with no makeup resolves 50-50. Primary source: official MLB final statistics within 24 hours, or credible reporting consensus.
  • Polymarket: First-5-innings leader market. Resolves to Seattle Mariners, Miami Marlins, or Draw based on score at end of 5th inning. Postponement keeps market open until 5th inning is completed; cancellation with no makeup resolves 50-50. Primary source: official MLB statistics within 24 hours, or credible reporting consensus.
  • Kalshi: First-5-innings run-total markets (7 separate binary markets for thresholds 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5 combined runs). Each resolves Yes if combined runs exceed threshold, No otherwise. Primary source: official MLB statistics within 24 hours, or credible reporting consensus.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Seattle Mariners and Miami Marlins, scheduled for July 9 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the combined run total scored by Seattle and Miami through the completion of the fifth inning of their game originally scheduled for July 9, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific run threshold: Yes resolves if combined runs exceed the stated threshold (0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, or 6.5), and No resolves otherwise. For example, the Over 2.5 runs market resolves Yes only if the teams score 3 or more combined runs in the first five innings. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and resolves after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.

Predict

In the upcoming MLB game between the Seattle Mariners and Miami Marlins, scheduled for July 9 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners win the game. This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Frequently asked questions

The First 5 Innings Winner market dashboard aggregates trader positions across Polymarket and Kalshi, showing real-time consensus on which team will lead after the first five innings of the Seattle Mariners versus Miami Marlins matchup. Traders on both platforms are pricing the likelihood of each outcome, with current aggregate volume of $265,797 and 24-hour activity at $246,885. This cross-platform view reveals how prediction market participants assess early-game momentum, independent of final-game results.

Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on peer-to-peer pricing rather than sportsbook margins. Traders directly set odds by buying and selling shares, which typically reflects aggregate belief more efficiently than traditional betting lines. Sportsbooks build in juice or vigorish, while prediction markets charge only transaction fees. For this matchup, comparing this market's implied probabilities to major sportsbook spreads can reveal whether public sentiment favors the Mariners or Marlins in the early innings.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can create temporary price gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi may also have distinct user bases with varying risk appetites or information access. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these spreads, but brief windows of divergence can persist due to platform-specific withdrawal delays, regulatory constraints, or trading volume imbalances. Monitoring both venues helps identify where consensus is strongest.

Key catalysts include starting pitcher announcements, recent team form and offensive statistics, weather forecasts for game day, and any late-season injuries or roster changes. Trades or lineup adjustments closer to game time can shift trader sentiment. Early betting action on sportsbooks and sharp money movement often precedes prediction market repricing. Live updates during the game itself—such as early runs, errors, or pitching changes—will drive rapid position adjustments as traders react to unfolding events.