TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 7:27 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates how many points will be scored in the final quarter of a football game between two teams. Each market has a different threshold for the total points needed to meet or exceed, allowing participants to assess varying levels of scoring intensity in the last quarter of play.
These markets resolve based on the total points scored by both teams combined during the 4th quarter of the designated football game, excluding any overtime periods. Each market has a specific numerical threshold; if the combined score meets or exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes.' If the combined score falls below the threshold, it resolves to 'No.' All markets share the same secondary rule, which specifies that only points scored during regulation 4th quarter play count toward the resolution, with overtime points explicitly excluded. The outcome is determined immediately following the conclusion of the 4th quarter, regardless of the game's final result or any post-regulation periods.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates the collective predictions of many individuals. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – and as the game progresses, you may see the prediction market odds diverge from, or converge with, sportsbook odds. It’s common to see prediction markets more accurately reflect true probabilities as the event approaches, especially when significant volume is traded.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the total points scored in the 4th quarter will be above or below a certain threshold. The price of these contracts reflects the probability of that outcome, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price fluctuates, providing a dynamic assessment of the potential score. The current price represents the market’s best estimate of the outcome’s likelihood.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the total points scored in the 4th quarter of the Seahawks-Cardinals game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The official NFL game statistics will serve as the basis for verification. Traders holding contracts on the correct side of the outcome will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect side will forfeit their stake. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Seahawks or Cardinals would likely cause movement, as would changes in weather forecasts that could affect scoring. In-game events, such as a dominant performance by one team or a series of turnovers, will also drive price fluctuations. Major shifts in public sentiment, perhaps triggered by expert analysis or social media trends, could also impact trading activity and move the market. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments could also play a role in shaping the market’s direction.