TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 5:17 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of the first quarter in an upcoming football game between two teams. Each market evaluates different point differentials to determine the winner of the quarter, offering various thresholds for how decisively one team might lead at the end of the first quarter.
These markets resolve based on the point differential between the Seattle Seahawks and the Arizona Cardinals exclusively during the first quarter of their scheduled game on September 20, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific point threshold, with outcomes determined by whether the winning team exceeds that threshold by more than the specified margin. All markets exclusively consider points scored in the first quarter, disregarding any scoring that occurs in subsequent quarters. The resolution hinges solely on the final score differential at the end of the first quarter, with no consideration for overtime, ties, or post-quarter events. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of informed bettors, potentially differing from those initially set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to directly express their beliefs about the probability of different outcomes. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, analytical approaches, or simply the dynamics of supply and demand within the prediction market. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines as new information becomes available and bettors adjust their positions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the first quarter. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by the collective actions of buyers and sellers. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders believe a particular spread is likely, the price of contracts representing that spread will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and generate a forecast.
This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official result of the Seahawks-Cardinals first quarter spread is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final point spread established by official game statistics. The market will determine which contract – representing a specific point spread – accurately predicts the result. All outstanding contracts will be settled based on whether the actual spread falls within the range of the purchased contract.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. News regarding player injuries to key offensive or defensive players on either team would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also shift expectations. Late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions might also move the market. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi from informed bettors could indicate a shift in sentiment and cause the price to adjust accordingly.