TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC?

Total volume:
$892,758
Volume 24h:
$892,591
616,160%
Liquidity:
$8,475
18%
Open interest:
$577,997
670%

SE Palmeiras

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 22, 2026

Time left: 06d:20h:42m

Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-10-21?

51%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 52¢ buys you 192 shares | Odds: 51% Total Payout: $192 | Net Profit: $92 Multiplier: 1.92x | ROI: 92% APY not meaningful 6 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

SE Palmeiras

Trade
51%
41%
Yes 52¢No 50¢
2¢
$2,697
$252
0%
N/A
N/A
6d 20h 42m
active
kalshi

Reg Time: Palmeiras

View
100%
62%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$435,458
N/A
N/A
$261,082
Settled
Yes
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
51%
Yes 76¢No 25¢
Avg: 51¢Max: 100¢
polymarket

Fluminense FC

Trade
21%
65%
Yes 23¢No 82¢
5¢
$2,801
$12
0%
N/A
N/A
6d 20h 42m
active
kalshi

Reg Time: Fluminense

View
0%
33%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$339,247
N/A
N/A
$241,982
Settled
No
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
20.5%
Yes 11.5¢No 91¢
Avg: 52.5¢Max: 100¢
polymarket

Draw (SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC)

Trade
27%
23%
Yes 29¢No 75¢
4¢
$2,977
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
6d 20h 42m
active
kalshi

Reg Time: Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$117,790
N/A
N/A
$74,933
Settled
No
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
Avg: 52¢Max: 100¢
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks whether SE Palmeiras will win their soccer match against Fluminense FC on October 21, 2026, as part of the CONMEBOL Libertadores tournament. Currently, the aggregated probability of a Palmeiras win across Polymarket and Kalshi is 83.0%. Resolution will be based on the official result reported by https://conmebollibertadores.com/. Keep an eye on October 22, 2026, as this is the estimated date for resolution following the conclusion of the match and any potential appeals process.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Cancellation handling differs significantly between platforms, impacting win markets specifically. Polymarket resolves win markets to 'No' on cancellation, while Kalshi resolves all outcomes to 'Yes'.Hero tip: Consider the cancellation risk when trading. Kalshi's resolution on cancellation provides a hedge for all outcomes, while Polymarket's resolution creates a strong directional bias.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Markets resolve based on whether Palmeiras or Fluminense wins within 90 minutes + stoppage time. If the game is canceled, win markets resolve to 'No' and the draw market resolves to 'Yes'.
  • Kalshi: Markets resolve based on whether Palmeiras, Fluminense, or a Tie occurs within 90 minutes + stoppage time. If the game is canceled, all markets (Palmeiras win, Fluminense win, or Tie) resolve to 'Yes'.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming Copa Libertadores game, scheduled for Wednesday, October 21, 2026 between SE Palmeiras and Fluminense FC.

Kalshi

The markets collectively determine the result of the Fluminense vs Palmeiras professional CONMEBOL Libertadores soccer match originally scheduled for October 14, 2026, based solely on the outcome after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Each market corresponds to a specific possible result: Fluminense win, Palmeiras win, or a tie. If the match ends in a tie after regulation time, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform. The markets are independent of any league affiliations, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect a more diverse range of information than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically set odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates the wisdom of the crowd. This can lead to differences, especially when there's significant public sentiment or inside information not yet reflected in conventional odds. The current volume of $892,758 suggests considerable interest in this event, potentially driving more accurate probabilities than traditional sources.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading rules, and liquidity, which can all influence price discovery. Additionally, differing levels of information access and interpretation among traders on each platform contribute to these discrepancies. The current volume on each platform—$892,758 overall—also plays a role; lower volume can lead to greater price volatility and divergence. These differences present opportunities for arbitrage traders.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result of the Palmeiras vs. Fluminense match will be used to determine the winning outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result, as this will be the basis for settlement. The current volume suggests strong interest in predicting the outcome of this match, and the market will remain open for trading until the resolution date.

Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 22, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, or tactical changes could significantly impact predictions. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule or venue could also cause movement. Major upsets in other related matches, or shifts in public sentiment regarding either team’s chances, could also influence trading activity. With a current volume of $892,758, the market is sensitive to new information.