TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 16, 1:05 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Schalke or Real Madrid will win their professional Club Friendlies soccer game. On Kalshi, the current probability that Real Madrid wins is 96.0%, with Schalke at 4.0%. The result will be resolved based on the official match outcome. The decisive moment to watch will be the match itself on August 16, 2026, which will determine the final settlement.
The event determines the winner of a professional Club Friendlies soccer match scheduled for August 16, 2026, between Schalke and Real Madrid, based exclusively on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Three possible outcomes are considered: a win for Schalke, a win for Real Madrid, or a tie. If the match concludes with a victory for either team within the regular time, the corresponding market will resolve to Yes. Should the game end in a tie after the same duration, the Tie market will resolve to Yes. In the event the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as defined by the event rules. The resolution strictly adheres to the result within regular time, with no consideration given to extra time, penalty shootouts, or other post-regulation proceedings.
Prediction market odds in this market often diverge from traditional sportsbook lines due to different participant dynamics and scoring rules. While sportsbooks may set fixed odds based on analytical models, traders on Kalshi continuously adjust prices based on real-time sentiment, liquidity flows, and event developments. This can lead to sharper or more volatile pricing, especially as Aug 16, 2026 approaches and new information emerges.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders collectively set the price through buying and selling contracts that represent possible outcomes. The current top outcome reflects the aggregate sentiment and available information up to Aug 16, 2026. Volume of $960,903 shows overall participation, while the probability curve updates dynamically based on market activity and any new developments influencing the contest.
This market resolves around Aug 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be determined by the official match outcome, and contracts will settle accordingly based on that verified result.
Key moments such as player injuries, coaching decisions, or shifting tournament dynamics could sway this market as Aug 16, 2026 approaches. Performance in earlier matches, media narratives, and even weather conditions may influence trader sentiment. Any publicly reported changes that affect the perceived likelihood of outcomes will be reflected in real-time price adjustments on Kalshi.