TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
14-15m
- Polymarket
14-15m - Polymarket
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 15, 2026
Closed: Jun 15, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to how much "Scary Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (June 12 - June 14) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by June 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to how much "Scary Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (June 12 - June 14) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by June 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect aggregated trader expectations and often diverge from traditional box office analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on historical comps, marketing spend, and seasonal trends, prediction markets incorporate real-time sentiment and betting activity. Comparing Polymarket odds to published forecasts from box office tracking services like Box Office Pro or Deadline can reveal where the crowd sees upside or downside risk. These differences highlight how markets price uncertainty differently than consensus analyst models.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office market is priced through an automated market maker or order-book mechanism, with outcomes typically structured around box office thresholds or ranges. Traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each outcome, and the current market price reflects the collective probability assigned by active participants. Prices update in real time as new trades execute, allowing you to enter or exit positions at the prevailing odds throughout the trading window leading up to Jun 15, 2026.
The market resolves on Jun 15, 2026, after the second weekend box office data is officially reported. Resolution is determined by the actual domestic box office performance of "Scary Movie" during its second weekend of release. The specific outcome criteria—such as exact revenue ranges or threshold brackets—are defined in the market's terms and verified against authoritative box office sources. Once the weekend closes and figures are finalized, the market settles based on which outcome bracket the actual result falls into.
Key catalysts include first-weekend box office results, which establish momentum and audience reception; critical reviews and social media sentiment; competing film releases; and broader entertainment news affecting the horror genre. Unexpected cast or crew announcements, marketing campaign intensity, and real-time ticket sales data can all shift trader expectations. Weather, holiday timing, and streaming availability announcements may also influence second-weekend performance. Major entertainment news or industry developments could trigger rapid repricing as traders update their probability estimates ahead of Jun 15, 2026.
