TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 18, 3:00 PM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming match between SC Recife and Operário Ferroviário EC, scheduled for July 18, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "SC Recife" if SC Recife are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Operário Ferroviário EC" if Operário Ferroviário EC are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
In the upcoming match between SC Recife and Operário Ferroviário EC, scheduled for July 18, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "SC Recife" if SC Recife are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Operário Ferroviário EC" if Operário Ferroviário EC are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance liability and profit margins, while prediction markets like this one are driven purely by trader belief and capital allocation. Sportsbooks may adjust odds more slowly in response to late-breaking news, whereas traders here can react instantly to team news, injury reports, or lineup changes. Over time, prediction markets have demonstrated accuracy in pricing sporting events, though individual matches can show meaningful differences from conventional betting lines depending on liquidity and trader sophistication.
On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker mechanism where each eligible first scorer is represented as a tradable contract. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices fluctuate based on buy and sell pressure, with higher-priced contracts indicating stronger trader conviction. The cost to purchase a contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome. As match conditions evolve—team lineups confirmed, player fitness updates announced—traders adjust positions, causing prices to shift. This continuous repricing ensures the market remains responsive to new information and reflects real-time expectations about which player will score first.
Several catalysts can shift prices significantly before kickoff. Official team lineups and starting XI announcements often trigger sharp repricing, especially if a favored scorer is benched or unavailable. Injury reports, suspension news, or late roster changes can dramatically alter odds for affected players. Pre-match press conferences and tactical disclosures may hint at formation changes or attacking strategy, influencing trader positioning. Weather conditions, venue factors, and head-to-head form updates also influence sentiment. As match day approaches, any breaking news about player fitness or team morale can spark rapid trading activity and price movement across the board.