TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 1, 6:55 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Sao Paulo and Santos, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals each team scores during regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. Different thresholds define whether the event is considered a success for one team or the other based on the goal differential.
The event evaluates various goal-differential scenarios in the Sao Paulo versus Santos Brasileiro Serie A soccer match scheduled for July 30, 2026. Resolution is determined solely by the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty phases. Four distinct outcome thresholds are defined: Sao Paulo winning by more than 2.5 goals, Sao Paulo winning by more than 1.5 goals, Santos winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Santos winning by more than 2.5 goals. Any of these conditions, if met, will resolve the event positively for the respective team’s corresponding threshold. The governing body’s official match result is the sole determinant, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the league or teams involved.
Prediction market odds in this market often reflect a more nuanced, community-driven view compared to traditional sportsbook lines. While sportsbooks set their spreads based on analytics and risk management, prediction markets let participants bet directly on outcomes, which can lead to tighter or shifting lines. Traders should compare this market’s current implied probability to sportsbook spreads to spot potential value or divergence in expectations.
This market resolves around Jul 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score difference will determine which spread range is correct, and the market will settle based on that official result. Timing aligns with the conclusion of the match and subsequent confirmation from accepted sports data sources.
Injuries to key players, weather conditions, or recent team performance trends could shift this market as the match approaches. Media coverage and analyst predictions may also influence trader sentiment. Any last-minute lineup changes or tactical decisions by coaches can cause rapid adjustments in odds and volume on Kalshi before the game begins.