TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Santos FC vs. Recoleta FC
Volume:
$225,561
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a professional CONMEBOL Sudamericana soccer match between Santos FC and CD Recoleta scheduled for April 14, 2026. Markets across Polymarket and Kalshi assess the outcome after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, including three possible results: Santos win, Recoleta win, or draw.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Market structure differs (three binary markets vs. single three-outcome market) and cancellation logic is asymmetric across Polymarket win/draw markets, with Kalshi providing no explicit cancellation guidance.Hero Tip:
Traders should verify Kalshi's cancellation protocol directly with the platform. On Polymarket, the draw market provides cancellation protection (resolves YES if no makeup game), while win markets do not. This creates a structural hedge but also potential arbitrage if platforms diverge on cancellation interpretation.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets. Draw market: resolves YES if canceled with no makeup. Win markets: resolve NO if canceled with no makeup. Resolution source: official CONMEBOL statistics within 2 hours, or credible reporting consensus if delayed. Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes' (draw) and 'this market will resolve No' (wins).
- Kalshi: Single three-outcome market (Santos wins, Recoleta wins, Tie). No explicit cancellation clause provided in source data. Resolution source: implied official CONMEBOL statistics after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Quote: 'If Santos wins... If CD Recoleta wins... If Tie wins...' with no contingency language for cancellation.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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