TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 26, 1:55 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a UEFA Nations League soccer match between San Marino and Finland, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different goal-differential scenarios in the San Marino vs Finland UEFA Nations League match scheduled for September 26, 2026. Four distinct outcome markets exist, each corresponding to a specific winning margin: San Marino winning by more than 2.5 goals, San Marino winning by more than 1.5 goals, Finland winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Finland winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions are based solely on the final score after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty outcomes. The event explicitly states that the platform hosting these markets—Kalshi—is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to the governing league or its associated entities. Trademarks and branding remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which can be influenced by factors like public bias or sharp action. Sportsbooks set lines to balance betting action, while this market represents what traders believe will actually happen. Over time, as more information becomes available and more people trade, the odds on Kalshi may converge with or diverge from sportsbook odds depending on how the public and informed traders assess the San Marino vs Finland match. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different sides of the spread. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their positions based on their own analysis, news, and expectations, which in turn influences the price. This dynamic process aims to create a highly accurate forecast of the San Marino vs Finland match result, reflecting the aggregated intelligence of the market participants.
This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread result of the San Marino vs Finland match as reported by official sources. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which side of the spread was correct, and payouts will be distributed accordingly to those who correctly predicted the outcome. Traders should monitor official results following the match to understand the resolution process.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 26, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or unexpected weather conditions could significantly shift trader sentiment. Additionally, major upsets in other related matches or updated statistical analysis of team performance could impact the perceived probability of either team covering the spread. Public opinion and media coverage, while less impactful than concrete events, can also contribute to price fluctuations as traders react to the overall narrative surrounding the San Marino vs Finland match.