TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 1, 2:43 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Mili Poljicak and Juan Pablo Varillas in the San Marino, originally scheduled for August 1, 2026 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mili Poljicak' if Mili Poljicak advances against Juan Pablo Varillas. This market will resolve to 'Juan Pablo Varillas' if Juan Pablo Varillas advances against Mili Poljicak. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Mili Poljicak and Juan Pablo Varillas in the San Marino, originally scheduled for August 1, 2026 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mili Poljicak' if Mili Poljicak advances against Juan Pablo Varillas. This market will resolve to 'Juan Pablo Varillas' if Juan Pablo Varillas advances against Mili Poljicak. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket often differ from traditional sportsbook lines because they reflect aggregated trader sentiment rather than set odds from bookmakers. In this market, the probability assigned to each player incorporates real-time betting patterns and can shift rapidly with new information. Sportsbook odds, meanwhile, are typically adjusted by professionals to manage risk and may include different margins or assumptions. Comparing the two can reveal gaps in perception between casual bettors and expert analysts.
This market resolves around Aug 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be determined by the official match conclusion, and the winning trader will be the one who held contracts for the correct competitor at settlement. No further analysis or interpretation is needed beyond confirming the final score from trusted sports news and official tournament records.
Several signals could shift this market before it resolves, including updates on player health, changes to the match schedule, or significant performance trends in lead-up tournaments. Weather forecasts, court surface conditions, and any last-minute coaching or strategic adjustments may also influence trader sentiment. As new information becomes public, the odds on Polymarket can fluctuate rapidly, reflecting the evolving expectations of participants about who will prevail.