TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 12:38 AM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the margin of victory in an upcoming professional soccer match between San Jose and Portland. Each market corresponds to a specific goal-differential threshold that determines the outcome. The resolution depends entirely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
These markets resolve based on the goal differential in the San Jose vs Portland MLS match scheduled for September 26, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with outcomes determined exclusively by regular-time scoring. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if San Jose wins by more than 2.5 goals, San Jose wins by more than 1.5 goals, Portland wins by more than 1.5 goals, or Portland wins by more than 2.5 goals. Extra time and penalty shootouts do not affect resolution. All markets operate independently, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the league or teams involved.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the predictions of many individuals. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, they can drive the price on Kalshi in a different direction. This can create opportunities for informed traders to potentially find value where the market disagrees with conventional wisdom. It's important to compare both to get a comprehensive view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome, as profitable trades are rewarded. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price of these contracts will fluctuate, providing a dynamic assessment of the likely point difference in the San Jose vs Portland game. The current price indicates what the collective market believes is the most probable spread.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the San Jose vs Portland game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of the league. Traders who correctly predicted the final spread will receive a payout based on the contract price at the time of their trade. The market will then close, and all outstanding contracts will be settled according to the verified result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the San Jose or Portland teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, coaching decisions, or even weather forecasts could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about player availability or strategic shifts could also lead to price adjustments. As the game approaches, any late-breaking news or analysis could drive further trading activity and shift the market’s perception of the likely point spread.