TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 20, 7:29 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks individual team run production in the San Francisco vs Miami game on June 20, 2026. Bettors predict whether Miami or San Francisco will each score above various run thresholds independently.
Resolution is based on the individual final run totals for Miami and San Francisco in the game originally scheduled for June 20, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT. Miami's scoring is evaluated against thresholds of 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, and 7.5 runs, with Yes outcomes when Miami scores at or above the corresponding whole number (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 runs respectively). San Francisco's scoring is similarly evaluated against the same thresholds. The official final score as recorded by Major League Baseball determines the resolution for each team independently.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets aggregate the beliefs of traders who have real capital at stake. This market may show different implied probabilities than traditional sportsbooks, especially as new information emerges closer to game time. Comparing the two can reveal where the crowd on Kalshi sees value relative to conventional betting markets, though both are valid indicators of expected outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous order-book trading, where buyers and sellers submit bids and offers that determine the current odds. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders profit by correctly predicting whether the combined team total will fall above or below the specified threshold, and prices adjust in real time as new information and trades flow in. The spread between bid and ask reflects market liquidity and uncertainty, tightening when consensus builds and widening during periods of disagreement or low activity.
This market resolves around Jun 20, 2026, once the San Francisco vs Miami game concludes and the final team totals are verified. The outcome is determined by the combined points scored by both teams during the matchup, confirmed against credible public sources such as official league records or major sports data providers. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the final whistle, allowing traders to settle their positions promptly.
Key catalysts that could shift this market include injury announcements to star players, coaching changes, or updated team roster information. Weather conditions on game day, recent team performance trends, and head-to-head matchup history often influence trader expectations about scoring pace. Line movement at sportsbooks, expert analysis, and public sentiment shifts can also trigger repricing. As the game approaches, late-breaking news about player availability or tactical adjustments may cause sharp moves in the odds, especially if they affect either team's offensive or defensive capabilities.