TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 10, 9:20 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks which player will score the first touchdown in the San Francisco versus Los Angeles professional football game. Currently, Kalshi gives Puka Nacua a 22.0% probability of scoring first, while Demarcus Robinson is at 21.0%. The market will resolve based on whether a player scores the first touchdown in the game originally scheduled for September 10, 2026, as determined by the resolution source. Keep an eye on the game itself, as this market will resolve to ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ based on the outcome of the game on or before the resolution date of September 11, 2026.
Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified player scores the first touchdown of the game. If the player is active but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once the player takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market settles based on whether that player scores the first touchdown. If no touchdowns are scored in the entire game, the 'No Touchdown' market resolves to 'Yes,' and all individual player markets resolve to 'No.' These rules apply uniformly across all player-specific markets for the event.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set initial odds based on their own analysis, but this market allows a broader range of participants to weigh in, potentially identifying mispriced opportunities. While sportsbooks may adjust their odds based on betting action, this market continuously updates in real-time as traders buy and sell contracts, offering a dynamic assessment of probabilities. It’s common to see differences emerge, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each player scoring the first touchdown. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective belief about that player’s chance of success; a higher price indicates a greater perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate assessments, as profitable trades depend on correctly anticipating market movements. This creates a dynamic and efficient pricing mechanism that aggregates information from a diverse group of participants.
This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the player who scores the first touchdown in the game will determine the winning contract. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and play-by-play data. Any disputes regarding the outcome will be evaluated based on publicly available information from trusted sports news sources and official league records, ensuring a fair and transparent resolution process.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. News regarding player injuries, changes in weather conditions, or even strategic adjustments announced by the coaching staff could all shift probabilities. Unexpected announcements about a player’s role in the game plan, or even reports of internal team dynamics, could also trigger movement. Furthermore, significant betting activity – a large influx of volume on a particular player – can also drive price changes as traders react to perceived information or momentum. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how this market evolves.