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San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves - First 5 Innings Winner

Volume:
$105,679

San Francisco wins first 5 innings

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 9, 2026

Closed: Jun 17, 2:54 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

San Francisco wins first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$15,182
N/A
N/A
$11,407
Settled
Yes
polymarket

San Francisco Giants

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
19¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Atlanta wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$85,850
N/A
N/A
$70,815
Settled
No
polymarket

Atlanta Braves

View
0%
99%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,647
N/A
N/A
$3,512
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
99%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group tracks the winner of the first 5 innings in the MLB game between the San Francisco Giants and Atlanta Braves scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 7:15 PM EDT. Markets across platforms are attempting to resolve based on which team is ahead (or tied) after the completion of the 5th inning.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's binary market structure resolves to Yes for all three mutually exclusive outcomes (Giants win, tie, Braves win), creating a logical contradiction that makes the market unresolvable. Polymarket correctly uses three separate markets with distinct outcomes.Hero tip: Do not trade the Kalshi market in its current form. The resolution rules are internally contradictory—a binary Yes/No market cannot resolve to Yes for every possible outcome. Polymarket's approach of three separate markets (Giants win, Braves win, Tie) is the correct structure. Request clarification from Kalshi or treat this market as suspended pending rule correction.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary market with three Yes conditions: Giants win first 5 innings = Yes, Tie in first 5 innings = Yes, Braves win first 5 innings = Yes. This creates a logical impossibility where all outcomes resolve identically, rendering the market meaningless as a binary instrument.
  • Polymarket: Three separate markets with mutually exclusive outcomes: (1) San Francisco Giants winning after 5 innings, (2) Atlanta Braves winning after 5 innings, (3) Tied after 5 innings. Each market resolves to a specific outcome. Ties explicitly resolve to Draw. Postponed games remain open until 5th inning completion; canceled games with no makeup resolve 50-50.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Francisco Giants and Atlanta Braves, scheduled for June 16 at 7:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Atlanta Braves" if the Atlanta Braves is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

The San Francisco vs Atlanta professional baseball game scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 7:15 PM EDT will be evaluated based on which team has more runs at the end of the fifth inning. If San Francisco leads after five innings, the San Francisco outcome resolves to Yes; if Atlanta leads, the Atlanta outcome resolves to Yes. If the score is tied after five innings, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes and all team outcomes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and resolves after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those on Polymarket and Kalshi differ from traditional sportsbooks in that traders directly set odds through supply and demand rather than oddsmakers posting fixed lines. Sportsbooks typically adjust for margin and manage liability across many bettors, while prediction markets reflect pure crowd belief. For this market, comparing the implied probabilities here to major sportsbook moneylines can reveal whether the crowd is pricing the early-inning matchup more bullishly or bearishly than Vegas. Prediction market prices often lead sportsbook adjustments when new information emerges.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can create temporary price gaps on the same underlying event. Polymarket and Kalshi may also have slightly different user bases with varying risk appetites and information access. Additionally, trading volume concentration and the timing of large orders can push prices apart before arbitrage traders narrow the spread. These differences typically resolve as the event date approaches and more capital flows to the more accurate price.

Key catalysts include starting pitcher announcements, recent team performance trends, and injury updates to key position players who bat early in the order. Weather conditions at game time—wind direction, temperature, and humidity—can significantly impact early-inning scoring. Lineup changes announced on game day, bullpen availability, and historical head-to-head matchup data also influence trader positioning. As game time approaches, any late-breaking roster news or weather alerts will likely trigger sharp repricing across both platforms.