TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the first 5 innings between the Giants and Diamondbacks?

Volume:
$53,950

Arizona wins first 5 innings

 - Kalshi

Arizona wins first 5 innings - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 11:14 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Arizona wins first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$37,873
N/A
N/A
$30,444
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,767
N/A
N/A
$7,661
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

San Francisco wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,309
N/A
N/A
$6,782
Settled
No
polymarket

San Francisco Giants

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Arizona Diamondbacks

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group tracks the winner of the first 5 innings in the MLB game between the San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks. The markets resolve based on which team is ahead (or tied) at the conclusion of the 5th inning, regardless of the final game outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market resolves to Yes for all possible outcomes (Giants win, Diamondbacks win, or tie), making it logically unresolvable and providing no discriminatory power. Polymarket correctly structures three mutually exclusive outcomes. Additionally, scheduled dates diverge (June 29 vs June 30).Hero tip: Do not trade Kalshi's version—it is mathematically meaningless as every possible outcome resolves identically to Yes. Use only Polymarket's three-outcome markets for valid price discovery. Verify the actual game date with MLB.com official schedule before any settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Market resolves to Yes if San Francisco wins first 5 innings, Yes if Arizona wins first 5 innings, and Yes if they tie. All outcomes map to Yes, creating a tautology with zero predictive value. Scheduled date: June 29, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT.
  • Polymarket: Three distinct markets: (1) Resolves to San Francisco Giants if SF leads after 5 innings, (2) Resolves to Arizona Diamondbacks if AZ leads after 5 innings, (3) Resolves to Draw if tied after 5 innings. Includes explicit rules for postponement (market remains open) and cancellation (50-50 split). Scheduled date: June 30, 2026 at 9:40 PM ET.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks, scheduled for June 30 at 9:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

The San Francisco vs Arizona game scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT will be evaluated based on which team leads or if the score is tied at the end of the fifth inning. If San Francisco leads after five innings, the San Francisco outcome resolves to Yes. If Arizona leads after five innings, the Arizona outcome resolves to Yes. If the score is tied at the end of the fifth inning, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes and both team outcomes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and resolves after the rescheduled game concludes, provided the rescheduled game occurs within two days of the original date.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed sportsbook lines. Traders buy and sell shares reflecting their belief in an outcome, and prices adjust continuously based on supply and demand. Sportsbooks, by contrast, set odds to balance liability and extract a margin. Prediction market odds often reflect sharper, more dynamic pricing because traders have direct financial incentive to identify mispricing. However, sportsbook odds may tighten during high-volume betting windows, sometimes converging with prediction market consensus.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can cause temporary price gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi may also have distinct market-making activity, regulatory constraints, or user bases with different information access. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these spreads, but if trading friction or withdrawal delays are high, gaps can persist. Additionally, differences in how each platform displays or frames the outcome—such as emphasis on one team versus the other—can subtly influence trader behavior and final pricing.

Key catalysts include lineup announcements, starting pitcher confirmation, and recent team performance trends. Injury reports or roster changes affecting either team's early-inning strength can shift odds significantly. Weather conditions at game time—wind, temperature, and humidity—influence early scoring patterns. Breaking news about player availability or last-minute managerial decisions often triggers sharp repricing. Additionally, live market movement during pre-game hours reflects updated betting sentiment and professional trader positioning, so watch for volume spikes and odds swings in the final hours before first pitch.