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San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the first 5 innings: Giants or Diamondbacks?

Volume:
$16,656

Arizona -1.5 first 5 innings

 - Kalshi

Arizona -1.5 first 5 innings - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 30, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 11:14 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Arizona -1.5 first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11,351
N/A
N/A
$7,667
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Arizona -2.5 first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,265
N/A
N/A
$1,045
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Arizona Diamondbacks

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$670
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

San Francisco -1.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,883
N/A
N/A
$1,814
Settled
No
kalshi

San Francisco -2.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,184
N/A
N/A
$1,184
Settled
No
polymarket

San Francisco Giants

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$238
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$65
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This event group captures prediction markets on the outcome of the first 5 innings of the MLB game between the San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 9:40 PM ET. Markets track which team is winning (or if tied) at the conclusion of the 5th inning, with some platforms also offering run-margin thresholds.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses run-margin thresholds (1.5+ or 2.5+ runs) as binary YES/NO criteria, while Polymarket uses simple win/tie/loss outcome at end of 5th inning. A 1-run or 2-run victory resolves differently on each platform.Hero tip: Clarify which market you hold before settlement. Kalshi's YES requires a decisive margin; Polymarket's YES requires only that your team is ahead. A close 1-run or 2-run game will diverge in settlement outcome between platforms.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary YES/NO based on run margin. Resolves YES only if either team wins by more than 1.5 runs OR more than 2.5 runs in first 5 innings. Implies NO for ties or narrow margins (0, 1, or 2 runs depending on threshold). Key quote: 'If Arizona wins by more than 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings of the San Francisco vs Arizona professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jun 29, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Three-outcome market: resolves to team name if leading at end of 5th inning, or 'Draw' if tied. Any lead (1 run or more) triggers a YES for the leading team. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks, scheduled for June 29 at 9:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

The San Francisco vs Arizona game scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 9:40 PM EDT will be evaluated based on the run differential at the end of the fifth inning. Resolution depends on which team leads and by how many runs at that point. Arizona winning by more than 2.5 runs or more than 1.5 runs, and San Francisco winning by more than 1.5 runs or more than 2.5 runs each constitute separate Yes outcomes. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and resolves after the rescheduled game concludes, provided the rescheduled game occurs within two days of the original date.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on peer-to-peer pricing, where traders themselves set odds through supply and demand rather than oddsmakers. This often produces sharper, more efficient lines because traders have direct financial incentive to correct mispricings. Sportsbooks, by contrast, build in margins and manage liability across many bettors. For early-inning matchups, prediction markets can reflect faster-moving information and niche player performance data. Comparing this market's prices to traditional sportsbook lines on first-five outcomes reveals whether the crowd is pricing in recent injuries, bullpen changes, or weather factors that books may lag on.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and contract structures. Polymarket's top outcome focuses on a tied result after five innings, while Kalshi's leading contract emphasizes a Giants win by a specific margin. These different outcome definitions naturally produce divergent probabilities. Additionally, Kalshi and Polymarket settle through independent verification processes, and traders may weight credibility or timing differently across venues. Arbitrage traders exploit these gaps, but temporary spreads persist due to withdrawal delays, fee structures, and the time cost of moving capital between platforms.

Lineup announcements, starting pitcher changes, and bullpen availability updates can shift odds significantly before first pitch. Weather conditions—wind direction, temperature, and humidity—affect early-inning scoring patterns and may trigger repricing. Injury reports on key hitters or relievers will influence trader expectations for run production in the opening frames. Recent team performance trends, such as hot or cold streaks in early innings, also drive sentiment. Breaking news on umpire assignments or field conditions closer to game time can create final volatility. Real-time game flow—early runs, errors, or momentum swings—will move prices dynamically once play begins.