TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 31, 1:46 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether either the San Diego Padres or Washington Nationals will score a run during the first inning of their scheduled matchup. On Kalshi, the probability of at least one run scoring in the opening frame stands at 50.5%. Resolution is determined by the official result of the game originally scheduled for May 31, 2026 at 1:35 PM EDT. Watch the teams' recent offensive performance and starting pitcher matchups leading up to first pitch on May 31, 2026, as early offensive momentum often sets the tone for inning-by-inning outcomes.
The market resolves on May 31, 2026, which corresponds to the end of the first inning of the San Diego vs Washington game. The outcome is determined by whether San Diego scores at least one run during that inning according to official Major League Baseball records. Once the first inning concludes, the result is locked in and the contract settles to either 100 cents (if San Diego scored) or 0 cents (if they did not). Resolution occurs automatically after the inning is complete and the official score is confirmed.
Several factors can shift odds before the game starts. Lineup announcements—particularly whether San Diego's top hitters are playing—directly impact first-inning scoring probability. Injury reports for key batters or Washington's starting pitcher will influence trader expectations. Weather conditions like wind direction and temperature affect ball carry and offensive output. Recent team performance trends, such as San Diego's hot or cold streak in early innings, also matter. Pregame commentary from analysts and betting action on related markets (like total runs or moneyline) can signal sharp money moving into or out of the first-inning run contract, causing price swings closer to game time.