TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 5, 12:49 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether San Diego and Los Angeles Dodgers will combine to score more than 4.5 runs in their matchup. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 99.0%. The market resolves based on the official combined run total from the professional baseball game scheduled for July 4, 2026 at 10:10 PM EDT. Watch for the final score when the game concludes on July 4, 2026, as that will determine the resolution outcome.
Resolution is based on the final combined run total scored by both teams in the San Diego vs Los Angeles Dodgers professional baseball game originally scheduled for July 4, 2026 at 10:10 PM EDT. Each outcome resolves independently based on whether the combined total exceeds its specified threshold (2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, 9.5, 10.5, 11.5, or 12.5 runs). An outcome resolves to Yes if the combined total surpasses its threshold, and No otherwise.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets aggregate the beliefs of traders risking real capital. This market may price the total runs differently than traditional sportsbooks, especially if informed traders spot value that books have mispriced. Comparing the two can reveal where the crowd on Kalshi sees an edge relative to conventional betting lines.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders submit bids and asks for shares representing different run-total outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective belief of market participants about the likelihood of that outcome. As new information emerges—injuries, weather updates, or lineup changes—traders adjust their positions, moving prices in real time. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market continuously incorporates fresh data and trader conviction.
This market resolves around Jul 5, 2026, once the game concludes and the final run total is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the combined runs scored by both teams across all innings. No adjustments or special conditions apply; the resolution hinges solely on the official final score. Traders should monitor the game closely as it unfolds, since late-inning developments can shift the total and trigger significant price movement in the final moments before settlement.
Key catalysts include lineup announcements, starting pitcher confirmations, and injury updates for star hitters or pitchers. Weather conditions—wind speed and direction, temperature, and humidity—can significantly affect ball carry and scoring pace. Recent offensive form, bullpen health, and head-to-head historical scoring trends also influence trader positioning. Breaking news about player availability or last-minute roster moves can trigger sharp repricing. As game time nears, market depth and volatility typically increase, amplifying the impact of any late-breaking developments on this market's price.