TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 3, 1:24 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether the Los Angeles D will defeat San Diego by more than 3.5 runs in their professional baseball matchup. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—Los Angeles D winning by over 1.5 runs—stands at 98.0%. Resolution is determined by the official final score of the game originally scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 10:10 PM EDT, as reported by the resolution source. Watch the actual game result on July 2, 2026 to see if the run differential exceeds the 3.5-run threshold.
Resolution is determined by the final run differential in the San Diego vs Los Angeles Dodgers game originally scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 10:10 PM EDT. Los Angeles Dodgers outcomes resolve to Yes if they win by more than the specified run margin (3.5, 2.5, or 1.5 runs). San Diego outcomes resolve to Yes if they win by more than the specified run margin (1.5, 2.5, or 3.5 runs). The outcome reflects which team achieves victory and by how many runs.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant pools and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. This market aggregates real-money forecasts from a diverse group of participants, which can reveal signals that sportsbooks haven't fully priced in. Comparing the two can highlight where public perception and market pricing differ most sharply.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous order-book trading, where buyers and sellers set the spread odds by placing bids and offers. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share represents a fractional claim on one outcome, and the market price reflects the last executed trade. As new information emerges or trader conviction shifts, the price adjusts in real time. Higher trading volume typically tightens the bid-ask spread and improves price accuracy, while lower volume can widen it.
This market resolves around Jul 3, 2026, once the game concludes and the final spread is verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the actual point differential between the two teams at the end of regulation play. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution timing depends on official game completion and confirmation from established sports data providers.
Key injury announcements, roster changes, and recent team performance trends can shift this market significantly. Weather conditions on game day, line movement at major sportsbooks, and sharp trader activity often precede price moves here. Breaking news about player availability or coaching decisions typically triggers volatility. Social media sentiment spikes and expert commentary can also influence trader positioning. Monitor pre-game press conferences and official team statements for catalysts that might reshape expectations about the final spread.