TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 26, 3:25 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Toledo will win the college football game against San Diego State by more than 2.5 points. Currently, Kalshi gives Toledo winning by over 2.5 points a 99.0% probability. Resolution will be determined based on the final score of the San Diego St. vs Toledo game, as defined by the point differential if San Diego St. wins by more than 13.5 points. Keep a close watch on the game itself, scheduled for September 26, 2026, as the outcome will be determined by the final score at the end of the game on that date.
All markets resolve based on the official final result of the San Diego State vs Toledo college football game scheduled for September 26, 2026. If San Diego State wins, markets resolve to Yes if their victory margin exceeds the specified point threshold; if Toledo wins, markets resolve to Yes if their victory margin exceeds the threshold. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific point differential conditions outlined in individual markets.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning closely with, but sometimes diverging from, traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set their lines based on analysis and aiming for balanced action, while this market represents the collective prediction of traders on Kalshi. If a significant difference exists, it could indicate that market participants believe the sportsbook has mispriced the probability of a particular outcome. It's important to note that prediction markets allow for trading up to the event's resolution, potentially leading to odds movements that differ from fixed-odds sportsbooks.
This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the San Diego St vs Toledo game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing sports authority. Traders who correctly predicted the final spread will receive a payout based on the contract price at resolution. The market will close prior to the game's completion, allowing time for accurate verification of the result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 26, 2026. Any significant news regarding player injuries, changes in coaching strategies, or unexpected weather conditions impacting game day could all shift trader sentiment. Public perception, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, can also play a role. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could indicate new information or a change in market outlook, causing the price to move. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential shifts in this market.