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San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals - First 5 Innings Winner

Volume:
$12,455

St. Louis -1.5 first 5 innings

 - Kalshi

St. Louis -1.5 first 5 innings - Kalshi

1W

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Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 17, 2026

Closed: Jun 16, 9:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

St. Louis -1.5 first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,785
N/A
N/A
$4,868
Settled
Yes
polymarket

St. Louis Cardinals

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

San Diego Padres

View
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
0.8¢
N/A
$33
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

St. Louis -2.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,204
N/A
N/A
$2,854
Settled
No
kalshi

San Diego -1.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,703
N/A
N/A
$1,263
Settled
No
kalshi

San Diego -2.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$691
N/A
N/A
$654
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$33
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This event group tracks the winner of the first 5 innings in the MLB game between the San Diego Padres and St. Louis Cardinals scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 7:45 PM EDT. Markets across platforms differ in whether they resolve on run differential thresholds or simple head-to-head lead at the 5-inning mark.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses run-differential thresholds (1.5 or 2.5 runs) for Yes resolution, while Polymarket resolves on any lead or tie at the end of the 5th inning. This creates a gap in Kalshi where close games may not resolve to Yes despite a clear winner.Hero tip: If you expect a close game (1-2 run margin), Polymarket offers clearer resolution since any lead resolves to the leading team. Kalshi traders should clarify what happens if the final 5-inning score shows a 1 or 2-run margin—these scenarios may not satisfy any Kalshi condition and could face ambiguous settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Four conditions all tied to run differential thresholds: St. Louis by >1.5 runs = Yes, San Diego by >2.5 runs = Yes, St. Louis by >2.5 runs = Yes, San Diego by >1.5 runs = Yes. Notably, outcomes with 1-run or 2-run margins may not trigger any condition.
  • Polymarket: Three separate binary markets: (1) St. Louis winning after 5 innings, (2) San Diego winning after 5 innings, (3) Tied after 5 innings. Any lead resolves to the leading team; ties resolve to Draw. Complete outcome coverage with no ambiguity.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and St. Louis Cardinals, scheduled for June 16 at 7:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "St. Louis Cardinals" if the St. Louis Cardinals is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the run differential at the end of the first 5 innings of the San Diego vs St. Louis game scheduled for Jun 16, 2026 at 7:45 PM EDT. Each outcome resolves to Yes if the specified team wins by the stated margin or greater during the first 5 innings. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game finishes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those on Polymarket and Kalshi derive odds directly from trader positions and liquidity, reflecting real-time belief rather than a sportsbook's fixed line. Sportsbooks set odds to balance action and lock in margin; prediction markets adjust continuously as new information arrives. For early-inning outcomes, prediction markets often react faster to lineup changes, weather, or injury news because traders profit from accuracy. Comparing this market's odds to traditional sportsbooks can reveal inefficiencies—prediction markets sometimes price first-five scenarios more granularly than retail books, especially when specific run-margin conditions apply.

Polymarket and Kalshi may price this market differently due to variations in user base, liquidity depth, and contract design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, Polymarket's top outcome focuses on which team leads after five innings, while Kalshi may incorporate a run-margin threshold, creating distinct risk profiles. Trader demographics and capital availability also differ between platforms, causing temporary mispricings. Monitoring both venues helps you identify arbitrage opportunities or confirm consensus when prices converge, signaling stronger conviction across the broader prediction market ecosystem.

Lineup announcements, starting pitcher confirmations, and weather updates are primary catalysts that shift early-inning odds. Injury reports on key hitters or bullpen arms can swing sentiment sharply, since five-inning outcomes depend heavily on starter performance and early offensive matchups. Recent form, head-to-head splits, and ballpark factors (San Diego's cooler marine layer versus St. Louis humidity) also influence trader positioning. Real-time game flow—early runs, errors, or momentum swings—will drive sharp repricing in the final minutes before first pitch. Monitor sports news and team social media for last-minute roster or strategy changes that could alter the early-game dynamic.