TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs - First 5 Innings Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the first 5 innings: Padres or Cubs?

Volume:
$46,286

Chicago C wins first 5 innings

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jun 30, 9:49 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Chicago C wins first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$29,295
N/A
N/A
$26,084
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Chicago Cubs

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
19.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

San Diego wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,488
N/A
N/A
$11,060
Settled
No
polymarket

San Diego Padres

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,500
N/A
N/A
$3,925
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers prediction markets on the outcome of the first 5 innings of the MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs scheduled for June 30, 2026 at 8:05 PM EDT. Markets track whether the Padres, Cubs, or neither (tie) will be winning at the conclusion of the 5th inning.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market logic is internally contradictory—it resolves to Yes for all possible outcomes (Padres win, Cubs win, or tie), which violates the fundamental principle of a binary prediction market. This makes the market logically unresolvable and creates irreconcilable conflict with Polymarket's three-outcome design.Hero tip: Avoid trading Kalshi until the platform clarifies the actual resolution logic. The current definition guarantees a Yes resolution regardless of game outcome, which is not a valid prediction market. Polymarket's three-outcome structure (Padres / Cubs / Draw) is the only coherent framework available.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Offers three mutually exclusive outcomes: Padres win (if leading after 5 innings), Cubs win (if leading after 5 innings), or Draw (if tied after 5 innings). Resolution source is official MLB statistics or credible reporting consensus within 24 hours. Postponed games remain open until 5 innings are completed; canceled games with no makeup resolve 50-50.
  • Kalshi: Structured as Yes/No but resolves Yes for all three possible outcomes: San Diego win, tie, or Chicago win. This creates a logical contradiction—there is no scenario under which the market resolves to No, making it functionally equivalent to a market asking 'Will the game happen?' rather than 'Who will win the first 5 innings?'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs, scheduled for June 30 at 8:05 PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on which team leads or whether the score is tied at the end of the first five innings of the San Diego vs Chicago C professional baseball game originally scheduled for June 30, 2026 at 8:05 PM EDT. If San Diego has more runs after five innings, the San Diego outcome resolves to Yes. If Chicago C has more runs after five innings, the Chicago C outcome resolves to Yes. If both teams have scored the same number of runs after five innings, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes and all team outcomes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game has finished within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed odds set by a sportsbook. Traders here buy and sell shares directly, meaning prices reflect live consensus rather than a bookmaker's margin. This market often moves faster than traditional sportsbooks when new information emerges—injury reports, lineup changes, or weather updates can shift prices within minutes. However, sportsbook odds may offer tighter spreads and faster payouts, while prediction markets reward early movers and long-term holders with potentially better value.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which naturally creates price variation. Polymarket may see heavier action from international traders, while Kalshi's regulatory framework appeals to US-based participants. Order book depth, recent trades, and platform-specific incentives all influence how quickly prices converge. Additionally, subtle differences in market design—such as how each platform handles early resolution or partial fills—can cause temporary divergence that savvy traders exploit for arbitrage opportunities.

Key catalysts include starting pitcher announcements, last-minute roster changes, and weather conditions that might favor one team's hitting or pitching style. Injury reports on star players can shift sentiment sharply, as can recent team performance trends and head-to-head matchup history. Trading volume often spikes closer to game time as casual bettors enter, potentially moving prices away from early-bird consensus. Real-time game events—early runs, defensive plays, or pitching changes—will drive sharp price movement once play begins.