TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 21, 3:53 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Jakub Vrba and Spencer Johnson in the San Diego 2, USA, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 21, 2026 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jakub Vrba' if Jakub Vrba advances against Spencer Johnson. This market will resolve to 'Spencer Johnson' if Spencer Johnson advances against Jakub Vrba. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Jakub Vrba and Spencer Johnson in the San Diego 2, USA, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 21, 2026 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jakub Vrba' if Jakub Vrba advances against Spencer Johnson. This market will resolve to 'Spencer Johnson' if Spencer Johnson advances against Jakub Vrba. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, analytical approaches, or simply variations in opinion. It’s common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts regarding the Vrba vs Johnson match.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more shares are traded, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus of the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly updated based on the latest information and sentiment surrounding the Vrba vs Johnson match.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the San Diego 2 match between Jakub Vrba and Spencer Johnson. Any official result announced by the governing body will be used to determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders will be able to claim their winnings once the resolution is finalized and the results are officially validated.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market leading up to Sep 28, 2026. News regarding player injuries, changes in training regimens, or even weather conditions could all impact the perceived likelihood of either player winning the Vrba vs Johnson match. Public statements from analysts or coaches, as well as any significant shifts in betting patterns at sportsbooks, could also trigger movement. Unexpected developments or late-breaking information are likely to cause the most significant price fluctuations as traders adjust their positions.